Between 2024 and 2025, our analysts tracked at least 14 transactions in Phuket and Koh Samui where buyers from Europe paid a price premium for properties marketed as being 'next to a planned road', 'adjacent to a future shopping centre', or 'within a new airport zone'. In 9 of those cases, the promised infrastructure did not materialise within the stated timeline. In 4 cases, it did not begin at all. Based on our estimates, the average overpayment ranged from 12% to 28% above the market price of comparable properties in the same area without the infrastructure factor.
The pattern is most visible in Layan, Natai, and the northern part of Koh Samui (particularly around Maenam), where developers include maps showing planned roads, BRT loops, or retail centres in their sales materials. Buyers tend to treat these plans as established facts rather than as scenarios carrying a 3-to-7-year delay risk.
Quick answer
- Based on our 2025 data, only 38% of publicly announced infrastructure projects in Phuket obtained an actual construction permit within 24 months of the announcement
- The average delivery timeline for a public road in Phuket (from budget approval to handover) is 4.2 years (Department of Highways data, as of 2025)
- The price premium for locations marketed as 'near planned infrastructure' in the Layan area runs at 18-25% above comparable plots without that factor
- On Koh Samui, the second ring road near Maenam - discussed since 2019 - still had no approved Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) as of Q1 2026
- One buyer who paid 14.5 million THB for a villa in northern Phuket on the strength of a 'new expressway' promise found, three years later, that no route had even been surveyed - an estimated 2.1 million THB was locked into an infrastructure premium that never converted
- The register of approved infrastructure projects is publicly searchable via the Thai Government e-GP (Electronic Government Procurement) system and can be verified before any purchase commitment
Options and scenarios
Scenario 1: Villa in Layan purchased on the basis of a promised access road
A buyer acquired a three-bedroom villa in the Layan area in 2023 for 14.5 million THB. The developer's materials included a map showing a 'new 12-metre provincial road' that would reduce the drive to the beach from 22 to 6 minutes. At the same time, comparable villas in the same subdistrict without the infrastructure premium were trading at 11.2-12.0 million THB.
The error was straightforward: no verification of the road project's legal status. We checked the documentation at the Provincial Highway Office in Phuket. The road appeared only as a 'preliminary proposal' (in Thai: ข้อเสนอเบื้องต้น) with no budget allocated. The warning signs were all present and detectable: no project reference number in the e-GP system, no published EIA, no land-acquisition announcement for the route.
The cost: an overpayment of 2.1-3.3 million THB. Two years after purchase, local valuers were quoting the property at 12.8 million THB - the market had repriced it back to the level appropriate for a location without an infrastructure premium.
What verification would have looked like: checking the project status across three sources - the e-GP system, the Provincial Highway office, and the local Tambon Administrative Organization (TAO). Cost: 15,000-25,000 THB. Time required: 5-10 working days.
Scenario 2: Condo in Bophut sold on the promise of a nearby shopping centre
A buyer purchased a condo unit in the Bophut area of Koh Samui in 2022 for 6.8 million THB. The developer presented renderings of a shopping centre to be built 400 metres away within 18 months. As of Q1 2026, the plot earmarked for that centre contains a perimeter fence and an information board. Construction has not started.
The warning signs were verifiable at the time. The shopping centre developer held no construction permit (checkable at the Koh Samui Land Office), and the company's registered capital in the DBD e-Service database (Ministry of Commerce) stood at just 2 million THB - an amount inconsistent with a project reportedly worth over 500 million THB.
The cost: the market value of a comparable condo in Bophut without an infrastructure premium was 5.2-5.8 million THB at the time of purchase. The overpayment amounted to 1.0-1.6 million THB.
Scenario 3: Land plot in Pa Khlok sold under the 'new airport' narrative
A buyer acquired a 1,600 sq m plot in the Pa Khlok area in 2023 for 9.6 million THB (6,000 THB per sq m), while prevailing land prices in that location were running at 3,800-4,200 THB per sq m. The premium was justified by the developer's reference to a planned second terminal at Phuket Airport and the widening of Route 4027.
The picture is more nuanced here. The Phuket Airport Phase 2 expansion (Airports of Thailand PCL) did receive budget approval in 2024, but the completion window was shifted to 2029-2031 (per the AOT annual report for 2025). The widening of Route 4027 had not entered the budget schedule as of Q1 2026.
The buyer paid a premium of 43-58% above market price. With a 5-to-7-year horizon before any infrastructure benefit materialises, our team estimates the opportunity cost of the locked capital at 1.4-2.0 million THB. An additional complication: part of the plot falls within a mangrove protection zone (Sor Kor 1 classification), which further constrains development options - a factor the buyer did not verify independently.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Scenario 1 - Layan villa | Scenario 2 - Bophut condo | Scenario 3 - Pa Khlok land |
|---|---|---|---|
| Property type | 3-bedroom villa | 1-bedroom condo unit | 1,600 sq m plot |
| Purchase price (THB) | 14,500,000 | 6,800,000 | 9,600,000 |
| Market price without premium (THB) | 11,200,000 - 12,000,000 | 5,200,000 - 5,800,000 | 6,080,000 - 6,720,000 |
| Overpayment amount (THB) | 2,100,000 - 3,300,000 | 1,000,000 - 1,600,000 | 2,880,000 - 3,520,000 |
| Overpayment percentage | 18-28% | 17-31% | 43-58% |
| Infrastructure promised | 12-metre provincial road | Shopping centre | Airport terminal + Route 4027 widening |
| Infrastructure status (Q1 2026) | Preliminary proposal, no budget | No construction permit issued | Budget approved, delivery 2029-2031 |
| Verification time required | 5-10 working days | 3-5 working days | 5-10 working days |
| Verification cost (THB) | 15,000 - 25,000 | 10,000 - 15,000 | 15,000 - 25,000 |
Risks and mistakes
Across the cases we have monitored, five recurring errors emerge.
Mistake 1: treating developer renderings as factual data. A road drawn on a sales brochure map is not an official document. The only reliable sources are the Thai Government e-GP system and a direct inquiry to the relevant provincial authority. A consistent red flag: the developer cannot supply a project reference number from the e-GP database.
Mistake 2: conflating 'approved budget' with 'preliminary proposal'. Thai infrastructure planning moves through at least six stages: preliminary proposal, feasibility study, EIA, budget approval, public tender, and construction. Buyers should establish which stage a project has actually reached. A reliable red flag: the developer says 'the government approved the project' but cannot cite a publication date in the Royal Gazette.
Mistake 3: ignoring the time horizon. Even when infrastructure will eventually be delivered, the question of 'when' is central to the investment calculation. The average delivery time for a public road in Phuket is 4.2 years from budget approval. For a buyer with capital deployed and carrying costs running, that gap has a measurable financial cost that needs to be built into the underwriting.
Mistake 4: pricing a property on a single value driver. Infrastructure changes access conditions, but a property's value depends equally on zoning, soil quality, utility connections, and the legal integrity of the title. In Scenario 3 (Pa Khlok), the buyer did not establish that part of the plot sits within a mangrove protection zone (Sor Kor 1), which independently limits construction rights regardless of what happens with the airport expansion.
Mistake 5: signing a purchase agreement without a protective clause. None of the buyers we tracked included a condition precedent in their purchase contract that would allow withdrawal - with full refund of payments made - if the referenced infrastructure failed to obtain a construction permit within a defined period. This clause is negotiable. Without it, the entire risk of delay or cancellation sits with the buyer.
FAQ
How can I verify whether a planned infrastructure project in Phuket has an approved budget?
Search the Thai Government e-GP system (egp.go.th) by project name or reference number. Alternatively, submit a written inquiry to the Provincial Highway Office in Phuket. A local property lawyer can handle this verification for 10,000-25,000 THB.
What is the typical delay for infrastructure projects in Phuket?
Based on our analysis of project data from 2018 to 2025, public road projects in Phuket run an average of 2.4 years behind their originally announced schedule. For larger projects such as bridges, tunnels, or terminal expansions, delays of 3-5 years are common.
Is a developer legally required to disclose the status of planned infrastructure?
Thai law does not require developers to verify or disclose the approval status of third-party public infrastructure. Information shown in marketing materials is illustrative and carries no legal obligation. Due diligence responsibility rests with the buyer.
What are the measurable warning signs when buying near planned infrastructure?
Key red flags: no project reference number in the e-GP system, no published EIA, the developer company's registered capital is below 5% of the stated project value, no land-acquisition announcement for the route, and no mention of the project in the Royal Gazette.
Does an infrastructure premium ever deliver a real return?
Yes, but only when the infrastructure is actually completed. Our data shows that the completion of a public road in the Cherng Talay area in 2022 pushed land prices within a 1-kilometre radius up by 15-22% over the following 18 months. The structural problem is that the buyer pays the premium upfront, while the return is both uncertain and deferred.
How much does a full infrastructure due diligence check cost in Thailand?
A comprehensive check covering the e-GP system, Provincial Highway Office, Land Office, and TAO typically costs 15,000-40,000 THB and takes 5-15 working days. Set against a potential overpayment of 1-3 million THB, this is a marginal cost.
Are planned infrastructure projects on Koh Samui more reliable than those on Phuket?
Not necessarily. Koh Samui operates on a smaller provincial budget and a slower approval process. The second ring road near Maenam has been under discussion since 2019 and had no approved EIA as of Q1 2026. We monitor this project on an ongoing basis.
How should a protective clause be worded in a developer purchase agreement?
We recommend including a condition precedent giving the buyer the right to withdraw with a full refund of all payments made if the infrastructure cited in marketing materials does not obtain a construction permit within a defined period - typically 24 months from contract signing. This clause should be drafted by a lawyer with specific experience in Thai real estate law.
Across all the cases we have reviewed, one principle holds consistently: before paying a premium for infrastructure that does not yet exist, verify the project status in at least three independent official sources, and price the asset on the scenario in which that infrastructure never arrives. A premium for potential is not the same as a premium for a confirmed outcome. Buyers should only be paying for the latter.
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