In Q1 2026, foreign nationals registered more than 14,200 condominium ownership transfers at Thailand's Land Department offices nationwide. That represents roughly a 9% year-on-year increase relative to Q1 2025, based on data published by the Bank of Thailand. In Phuket and Koh Samui, the growth rate ran noticeably ahead of the national average. Our analysts monitor these registries on a quarterly basis; the breakdown below covers supply, demand, currency dynamics, and inbound tourism as a leading indicator.
Land registry records are the only hard data source for tracking foreign buyer activity in the Thai residential market. Unlike developer reports, which capture reservations and deposit payments, entries at the Land Office reflect actual ownership transfers and real transaction values.
Quick answer
- Nationwide condo ownership transfers to foreign buyers reached 14,200 in Q1 2026 (Land Department data), up approximately 9% year-on-year
- In Phuket, the foreign share of condo transfers stood at an estimated 38-42% of all registrations - the highest proportion in the country, based on our estimates
- In Koh Samui, we estimate the foreign share at 28-33%, with a clear uptick in buyers from China and South Korea
- The average transfer price recorded for foreign-bought condos in Phuket is approximately 5.8 million THB (around 155,000 USD at March 2026 rates)
- Phuket International Airport (HKT) handled more than 4.9 million passengers during the November 2025 to March 2026 high season; in our models this correlates with short-term rental occupancy with a 2-4 month lag
- Supply pipelines in Bang Tao and Layan are adding approximately 1,800 new units in 2026, moderating but not reversing price pressure in those sub-markets
Options and scenarios
Scenario A: continued transaction growth (base case)
Our base case assumes the Q1 trend holds through the remainder of 2026. Foreign demand is growing at 8-12% year-on-year, driven by buyers from China (supported by the Long-Term Resident visa programme), Russia, and the Middle East. The development pipeline in Bang Tao and Layan is set to deliver approximately 1,800 new condo units during 2026. This increases overall supply, but it simultaneously absorbs demand that had previously flowed toward the secondary market. In Koh Samui, the Bophut and Maenam corridors are expected to add around 650 units in H2 2026.
For a buyer, the practical implication is straightforward: list prices on new-build projects in Bang Tao are rising at 6-10% per year. The secondary market is moving more slowly (3-5%), which creates a negotiating window for resale purchases.
Scenario B: slowdown in Chinese buyer activity
If China tightens outbound capital controls, or if the yuan weakens by more than 5% against the Thai baht, we would expect Chinese transaction volumes in Phuket to fall by 15-25%. Chinese nationals currently account for an estimated 22-26% of all foreign transfers on the island. A partial offset could come from buyers in Eastern Europe and India, but that substitution typically takes 2-3 quarters to materialise.
The consequence for active buyers: a temporary improvement in negotiating leverage, particularly in the 4-7 million THB segment across Kamala and Surin.
Scenario C: tourism correction and occupancy pressure
In the event of an external demand shock - a global recession, or a geopolitical event suppressing air travel - arrivals at HKT could fall 20-30%. In our models, every 10% drop in arrivals translates, with a 3-6 month delay, into a roughly 4-6% decline in short-term rental occupancy and a 2-3% decline in average daily rates (as measured on platforms such as Airbnb) across tourist-facing districts including Patong, Karon, and Chaweng on Koh Samui.
The consequence: net short-term rental yields would compress below 5% gross. Buyers planning for rental income should hold a liquidity reserve equivalent to at least six months of operating costs.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Phuket - Bang Tao/Layan | Phuket - Kamala/Surin | Koh Samui - Bophut/Maenam | Koh Samui - Chaweng/Lamai |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign share of condo transfers (est. Q1 2026) | 40-45% | 35-40% | 30-35% | 22-28% |
| Average transfer price (THB per sq m) | 120,000-160,000 | 100,000-140,000 | 85,000-120,000 | 70,000-100,000 |
| New condo units in pipeline (2026) | approx. 1,100 | approx. 700 | approx. 400 | approx. 250 |
| Short-term rental occupancy - high season Nov-Mar (est.) | 78-84% | 72-80% | 68-76% | 65-74% |
| Gross annual rental yield (est.) | 5.5-7.0% | 5.0-6.5% | 5.0-6.5% | 4.5-6.0% |
| Dominant buyer nationalities | China, Russia, Australia | Western Europe, Russia | China, South Korea | Europe, Russia |
| Supply-side pressure risk (2026-2027) | Moderate to high | Moderate | Low to moderate | Low |
Risks and mistakes
1. Confusing reservations with ownership transfers. Developers report 'sales' at the point of a reservation agreement, typically when 10-30% of the purchase price is paid. The actual Land Department transfer occurs only after the building is completed and full payment is settled - a gap that often spans 12-36 months. In our analysis we use only registration data (transfers), never reservation figures.
2. Exceeding the 49% foreign quota. Thai law limits foreign ownership in any single condo building to 49% of total usable floor area. Projects in Bang Tao and Layan are increasingly approaching this ceiling at the pre-sale stage. A buyer who fails to verify the current quota status at the Land Office risks having the registration refused.
3. Currency exposure at the point of transfer. A buyer purchasing off-plan with a 12-24 month completion horizon carries exchange-rate risk against the Thai baht. A 5% currency move on a 6 million THB purchase translates into a meaningful difference in home-currency cost. We note that in 2025 the THB/USD rate had an amplitude of roughly 7%, illustrating the scale of potential exposure over a typical off-plan period.
4. Underestimating registration costs. Fees payable on a condo transfer to a foreign buyer include: transfer fee (2% of assessed value), Specific Business Tax (3.3%) or stamp duty (0.5%), and withholding tax. Based on our market observations, the net cost falling on the buyer typically amounts to 1-3% of the transaction price, depending on how costs are allocated between buyer and seller in negotiations.
5. Ignoring tourism data as a leading indicator. Monthly arrival statistics for Phuket (HKT) and Koh Samui (USM), published by Airports of Thailand (AOT), are the most reliable forward-looking proxy we track for short-term rental occupancy. A 10% drop in arrivals in a given quarter consistently precedes softer occupancy in the following quarter, based on our data sets.
FAQ
Where can I find official data on foreign transactions in Thailand?
The primary sources are the quarterly statistical reports of the Department of Lands (Krom Thi Din) and the capital-flow data published by the Bank of Thailand (BOT) in its real estate section. Our analysts monitor both and cross-reference them in our internal reports.
What share of Phuket condo transfers involve foreign buyers?
Based on our estimates from Q1 2026 registry data, foreign buyers account for 38-42% of all condo ownership transfers in Phuket. In Bang Tao and Layan specifically, that proportion rises to 40-45%.
Can a foreign buyer check the transaction history of a specific condo unit?
Yes. Any person can file a request at the local Land Office for a title deed extract (Chanote) for a specific unit. The extract shows the full transfer history, any mortgage encumbrances, and the current foreign quota status for the building. The fee is a nominal amount in Thai baht.
How does the Thai baht exchange rate affect purchase economics for international buyers?
At approximately 33-34 THB/USD (as of Q1 2026), a 6 million THB condo costs roughly 177,000-182,000 USD. A 5% strengthening of the buyer's home currency against the baht reduces that cost in home-currency terms by a comparable margin. We recommend analysing exchange-rate dynamics over at least a 12-month window before the anticipated transfer date.
What is the 49% foreign quota and how is it verified?
Thailand's Condominium Act (B.E. 2522 and subsequent amendments) restricts foreign ownership to a maximum of 49% of a building's total usable floor area. The current quota utilisation for any specific building is verified at the local Land Office or via the building's juristic person manager (the condominium management entity).
What fees does a foreign buyer pay at registration?
Standard charges include a transfer fee of 2% of the assessed value, Specific Business Tax at 3.3% (or stamp duty at 0.5% if the seller has held the unit for more than five years), and withholding tax. The allocation of these costs between buyer and seller is negotiable. In practice, the buyer's net share tends to fall in the 1-3% range of the transaction price.
Do tourism arrival figures genuinely help forecast rental yields?
Yes. In our models, the correlation between HKT monthly arrivals and short-term rental occupancy in the following quarter runs at approximately 0.7-0.8. It is the strongest leading indicator we have identified for the Phuket vacation rental market, and we apply the same framework to Koh Samui using USM arrival data.
Which Phuket districts have the highest foreign buyer concentration?
Bang Tao and Layan lead at 40-45% foreign share in Q1 2026. Kamala and Surin sit at 35-40%. Rawai and Nai Harn show a lower but fast-growing foreign share, estimated at 20-28% year-on-year.
What are average per-square-metre prices for foreign-bought condos on Koh Samui?
In Bophut and Maenam, the average transfer price in Q1 2026 was approximately 85,000-120,000 THB per sq m. In Chaweng and Lamai, prices were lower at 70,000-100,000 THB per sq m, based on our estimates from Land Office registration data.
Is the number of foreign transactions in Thailand still growing?
Yes. The growth trend has been in place since Q3 2023. In Q1 2026 we recorded approximately 9% year-on-year growth nationwide. Phuket is running faster at an estimated 12-15% year-on-year; Koh Samui is tracking at roughly 10-13% year-on-year, based on our estimates.
Land Office registration data leaves little ambiguity: foreign buyer activity in Phuket and Koh Samui is expanding in 2026. The key variables for any buyer to verify before committing are the current foreign quota utilisation in the target building, the exchange-rate trajectory at the anticipated transfer date, and the new-supply pipeline in the specific district under consideration. We recommend confirming each of these variables as a standard step in any due-diligence process.
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