As of Q1 2026, our analysts estimate that more than 8,200 condominium units are under construction or in the final completion phase across Phuket. Of those, approximately 3,400 units are scheduled for handover between April and December 2026. By our tracking, this represents the largest annual delivery pipeline the island has seen since 2019, when the market was absorbing a pre-pandemic wave of project launches.
The geographic concentration of these new deliveries is notable. Three districts along the western coastline - Bang Tao, Layan, and Kamala - together account for close to 58% of planned 2026 supply. A secondary cluster sits in Karon and Rawai, where projects target the budget-to-mid segment, with entry prices in the 3.8-5.5 million THB range per unit.
For any internationally oriented investor, the pipeline carries direct operational consequences. A surge in near-term supply creates competitive pressure on short-term rental rates and extends average resale exposure times. We monitor these figures on a quarterly basis to provide a precise, current picture.
Quick answer
- Estimated condominium units scheduled for handover on Phuket in 2026: approximately 3,400 (data as of Q2 2026 opening)
- Highest concentration of new supply: Bang Tao and Layan combined, approximately 1,200 units
- Median asking price for new condominiums on the western coast: 6.2 million THB (approximately 720,000 PLN at 1 THB = 0.116 PLN, March 2026)
- Foreign buyer share in new freehold projects: estimated 62-68% of total sales volume
- Short-term rental occupancy on Phuket in the 2025/2026 season: 72-78% depending on district, per aggregated booking platform data
- Koh Samui pipeline is considerably smaller: approximately 480 units targeted for 2026 delivery, concentrated in Bophut and Chaweng
Options and scenarios
Baseline scenario: supply absorbed against stable tourism demand
In this scenario, international arrivals at Phuket International Airport (HKT) hold at 9.5-10 million passengers per year, broadly in line with 2025 figures (source: Airports of Thailand). Short-term rental demand remains firm enough that new condominiums in well-positioned locations - particularly Bang Tao, Surin, and Kamala - achieve 65-72% occupancy during their first full operating year. Asking prices in the premium segment appreciate at 3-5% year-on-year, while the budget cluster in Karon and Rawai experiences flat pricing conditions.
The practical implication for a buyer: purchasing in presale in a district with a limited forward pipeline - such as Layan or Nai Harn - provides a materially better value-growth outlook than entering an already-crowded Bang Tao market at the same stage.
Optimistic scenario: accelerated absorption driven by Chinese and Russian tourism recovery
If Chinese visitor numbers to Phuket surpass 2.5 million annually (versus an estimated 1.8 million in 2025), demand for premium rental accommodation would rise sharply. Under this scenario, occupancy in the 8-15 million THB product tier reaches 75-82%, and high-season daily rates (December through March) climb 8-12%. The delivery pipeline would be absorbed faster than baseline projections, generating demand-side pressure before the end of 2026.
Pessimistic scenario: delivery delays coincide with softer tourist arrivals
Historically, around 25-35% of Phuket development projects experience completion delays of 6-18 months. If a simultaneous softening of tourist arrivals occurs - driven, for instance, by a global economic slowdown - the market enters an oversupply phase. Short-term rental occupancy falls below 60%, and secondary-market pricing in delayed projects can correct by 5-10% relative to original presale levels. Our quarterly tracking explicitly flags project-level schedule adherence so that this risk is visible well in advance.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Bang Tao / Layan | Kamala / Surin | Karon / Rawai | Koh Samui (Bophut / Chaweng) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planned 2026 deliveries (units) | approx. 1,200 | approx. 750 | approx. 850 | approx. 480 |
| Median price (million THB) | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 5.8 |
| Median price (USD approx.) | approx. 210,000 | approx. 230,000 | approx. 130,000 | approx. 162,000 |
| Short-term occupancy, 2025/2026 season | 74% | 78% | 68% | 65% |
| High-season daily rate (THB) | 3,800-6,500 | 4,200-8,000 | 2,200-3,800 | 2,800-5,000 |
| Foreign buyer share (freehold) | approx. 70% | approx. 65% | approx. 55% | approx. 50% |
| Oversupply risk (team assessment) | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
| Avg. secondary resale period | 8-14 months | 6-10 months | 10-18 months | 12-20 months |
USD conversion based on approximate THB/USD rate as of Q1 2026. Occupancy data aggregated from booking platform reporting and our internal monitoring sets.
Risks and mistakes
Oversupply concentration in Bang Tao. This district carries the largest single pipeline on the island. A buyer acquiring a unit in a project scheduled for second-half 2026 delivery should factor in that several hundred competing units may enter the same rental market within a radius of a few kilometres simultaneously. The practical effect is a longer ramp-up to full stabilised occupancy.
Delivery delays. Based on our tracking of projects completed between 2022 and 2025, approximately 30% experienced delays of at least six months. Buyers committing at the presale stage should build this buffer explicitly into cash-flow projections.
Currency exposure. Over the past 24 months, the THB/USD rate has shown meaningful oscillation. Buyers transacting in a non-THB home currency should model their acquisition cost at both ends of the plausible range, not at a single spot rate, and review currency exposure before committing.
Missing the foreign freehold quota check. Foreign nationals purchasing a condominium in Thailand acquire freehold title within the foreign quota, which is capped at 49% of total units per building. Failing to verify that a project still has available foreign quota allocation is among the most consistent due-diligence gaps our analysts observe in incoming buyer inquiries.
Overestimating net rental yield. Developer marketing materials frequently quote guaranteed returns of 7-10% net. In our data sets, the realistic net yield after property management fees, maintenance, and applicable taxes runs at 4.5-6.5% per year, varying by district and price segment. The gap between headline and actual yield is not trivial and should be stress-tested before any acquisition decision.
FAQ
How many condominium units are scheduled for delivery on Phuket in 2026?
Based on our estimates as of the start of Q2 2026, approximately 3,400 units have a targeted completion date between April and December 2026. The highest delivery volumes are concentrated in Bang Tao, Layan, and Kamala.
Which Phuket districts face the greatest oversupply risk in 2026?
Bang Tao and Layan together account for roughly 1,200 planned deliveries in 2026. In our quarterly reports, these two districts are flagged at 'high' oversupply risk. Kamala and Karon carry a 'medium' rating, while Nai Harn and Layan's outer zones remain relatively constrained.
What is the median asking price for a new Phuket condominium in 2026?
The median asking price across new western-coast condominiums stands at approximately 6.2 million THB as of early 2026. In the premium segment - Kamala and Surin in particular - the median reaches 8.2 million THB per unit.
How does the delivery pipeline affect short-term rental rates on Phuket?
The transmission mechanism typically runs with a 3-6 month lag after project handover. When a large volume of units enters the rental pool simultaneously, as is projected for late 2026, daily rates in the highest-supply districts may stagnate or soften by 3-8%. Districts with smaller pipelines are materially less exposed to this dynamic.
Is the Koh Samui condominium pipeline also growing?
Koh Samui's pipeline is considerably smaller. Our analysts track approximately 480 units targeted for 2026 delivery, concentrated in Bophut and Chaweng. The oversupply risk for Koh Samui is assessed as low given the modest scale of new construction relative to existing stock.
What share of Phuket condominium buyers are foreign nationals?
In new projects along the western coast of Phuket, foreign buyers account for an estimated 62-68% of freehold sales volume as of 2026. Russian, Chinese, and Western European buyers make up the dominant international segments in our demand data.
What is the realistic net rental yield for a Phuket condominium?
Based on our analysis of operating projects, realistic net yield after management fees, maintenance costs, and taxes falls in the 4.5-6.5% per year range. Developer-quoted figures of 7-10% are typically gross or pre-cost estimates and should be treated with caution.
What are the typical completion delays for Phuket condominium projects?
Our tracking of projects delivered between 2022 and 2025 indicates that approximately 30% experienced delays of at least six months relative to the originally marketed timeline. Presale buyers should incorporate a six-to-twelve month contingency buffer into financial planning.
Is presale still worth considering on Phuket in 2026?
Presale pricing is typically 15-25% below post-completion asking prices, which can represent meaningful upside. However, the benefit is highly location-dependent. Districts with a limited forward pipeline - Nai Harn and outer Layan, for instance - offer a stronger appreciation case than heavily supplied zones. Developer track record and title verification are non-negotiable due-diligence steps before any presale commitment.
What does the foreign freehold quota limit mean for buyers?
Thai condominium law restricts foreign freehold ownership to a maximum of 49% of total units in any single building. If a project has already sold or reserved that quota, a foreign buyer cannot acquire freehold title and would need to consider alternative holding structures. Verifying available quota before signing is a fundamental step that our analysts flag in every project review.
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