As of Q1 2026, our analysts track between 8,500 and 9,200 condominium units either under construction or in the final fit-out stage on Phuket. Of that total, approximately 3,800 units are scheduled for handover in H2 2026. In our assessment, this makes 2026 the most concentrated new-supply period since the 2018-2019 development boom. The pipeline did not emerge suddenly: registration data from 2023-2025 shows a consistent pattern in which developers launched projects at presale absorption rates of only 40-55%, relying on construction-stage instalments to fund completion. Those projects are now reaching handover, and end-buyer absorption is not keeping pace.
On Koh Samui the absolute numbers are smaller, but the proportional picture is comparable. Based on our data sets, approximately 650-750 new units are scheduled for delivery on the island during 2026, concentrated primarily in Bophut and Chaweng. That figure is significant for a market that historically absorbs only 300-400 condominium transactions per year.
Quick answer
- Our analysts track 8,500-9,200 units under construction on Phuket as of Q1 2026, with 3,800 of those scheduled for H2 2026 handover
- Highest new-supply concentration by district: Bang Tao and Layan (combined pipeline of roughly 2,100 units), followed by Kamala (approx. 1,200) and Karon (approx. 800)
- Average asking prices for new Phuket condominiums rose 8-12% year-on-year in 2025, but in near-completion projects we are already observing first price adjustments of 3-5% relative to presale levels
- Koh Samui's pipeline of 650-750 units against an annual absorption rate of 300-400 transactions implies a minimum 18-24 months to clear new supply
- Foreign buyers accounted for 52-55% of registered condominium transactions on Phuket in 2025, driven primarily by Chinese and Russian purchasers
- The THB/EUR exchange rate, and broader baht weakness relative to major currencies in early 2026, means international buyers are currently acquiring at comparatively favourable converted prices
Options and scenarios
Baseline scenario: controlled absorption slowdown
In this scenario, arrivals at Phuket International Airport (HKT) hold near 18-19 million passengers per year - in line with Airport of Thailand data showing approximately 18.7 million in 2025. Short-term rental demand remains stable, sustaining investor interest in guaranteed rental programmes. New supply is absorbed within 12-18 months of handover, but developers are required to offer concessions: extended rental return guarantees at 5-6% net, full furnishing packages, and flexible payment schedules.
The consequence for pricing is flat to modest growth of 1-3% annually on completed-project transactions. Price pressure migrates to the secondary market, where owners of units from 2019-2022 must compete directly against new inventory.
Optimistic scenario: sustained external demand
This variant assumes HKT arrivals exceed 20 million passengers and Chinese buyer demand holds or strengthens following further visa liberalisation (Long-Term Resident Visa, Thailand Privilege Card). The pipeline clears in 8-12 months. Asking prices on new launches rise 10-15% year-on-year. The scenario also requires the baht to remain relatively weak (favouring foreign purchasers) and no tightening of the 49% foreign-ownership quota rules at the building level.
Pessimistic scenario: oversupply and price correction
If arrivals fall below 16 million - due to a global demand shock or tightened visa policy in key source markets - absorption extends to 24-36 months. Developers who did not pre-sell 70% or more of units during construction begin offering discounts of 10-15% off catalogue prices. On the secondary market, corrections of up to 15-20% become plausible in the highest-supply-density districts of Bang Tao and Kamala.
For a patient, liquidity-conscious buyer, this scenario also represents a selective entry window - provided the purchaser accepts subdued rental yields for the first two to three years of ownership.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Bang Tao / Layan | Kamala | Karon / Kata | Rawai / Nai Harn | Bophut (Koh Samui) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 pipeline (units, est.) | approx. 2,100 | approx. 1,200 | approx. 800 | approx. 550 | approx. 300 |
| Avg. asking price (THB/sqm) | 120,000-180,000 | 130,000-200,000 | 85,000-130,000 | 75,000-110,000 | 90,000-140,000 |
| Presale absorption (est.) | 45-55% | 50-60% | 55-65% | 60-70% | 40-50% |
| Guaranteed rental return | 5-7% | 5-6% | 4-6% | 4-5% | 5-7% |
| Oversupply risk (our rating) | High | Medium-high | Medium | Low-medium | Medium-high |
| Absorption time (baseline) | 14-18 months | 12-16 months | 10-14 months | 8-12 months | 16-22 months |
Risks and mistakes
Buying off-plan without verifying the surrounding pipeline. We monitor cases where five or six separate projects are simultaneously under construction within 500 metres of a new launch in Bang Tao. A buyer purchasing remotely based on a developer brochure has no visibility of that supply concentration. Our practical recommendation: before committing any payment, verify the number of EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment) permits issued in the relevant sub-district over the preceding 24 months.
Overestimating net rental yield. Developers on Phuket routinely present rental return figures of 7-8% gross. After deducting property management fees (typically 20-30%), common area maintenance charges (CAM), rental income tax, and vacancy periods, the realistic net yield in our data sets falls to 3.5-5.5%. Our quarterly reports consistently distinguish gross from net figures, and we recommend any buyer do the same before modelling returns.
Ignoring the supply cycle. The Phuket market moves in clearly defined cycles of roughly 5-7 years. The last handover peak occurred in 2018-2019; the COVID period froze new permit activity. The current 2026-2027 delivery wave is the direct result of the permit boom from 2022-2024. Buying at the peak of a supply cycle means accepting a period of subdued price appreciation.
Currency risk. The baht has traded across a wide historical range against major currencies. A baht appreciation of 10-15% can erode gains from property price growth for foreign buyers converting proceeds back to their home currency. We flag this as a structural risk in any multi-year return projection.
The 49% foreign-ownership quota. Thai condominium law caps foreign freehold ownership at 49% of total unit floor area per building. In projects heavily marketed toward international buyers - particularly in Bang Tao and Kamala - this quota is sometimes filled at the presale stage. Buyers who miss the freehold allocation must consider acquisition via a Thai company structure or a leasehold arrangement, each of which carries a different risk and exit profile.
FAQ
How many new condominiums are scheduled for handover on Phuket in 2026?
Based on our estimates, between 3,800 and 4,200 units are scheduled for handover on Phuket during 2026, with the largest concentrations in Bang Tao, Layan, and Kamala. The total active pipeline (under construction plus fit-out) stands at 8,500-9,200 units as of Q1 2026.
Which Phuket districts carry the highest oversupply risk in 2026?
Our analysts identify the Bang Tao and Layan corridor as carrying the highest oversupply risk, with roughly 2,100 units in the pipeline. Kamala (approx. 1,200 units) also warrants caution. Lower risk is observed in Rawai and Nai Harn, where the pipeline is smaller and presale absorption rates have been higher.
What does the condominium pipeline look like on Koh Samui?
We track a delivery pipeline of 650-750 units on Koh Samui for 2026, concentrated primarily in Bophut and Chaweng. With annual market absorption of roughly 300-400 transactions, clearing this supply will take an estimated 18-24 months under our baseline scenario.
What is the realistic net rental yield on a Phuket condominium?
In our analysis, the realistic net yield - after management fees, CAM charges, rental tax, and vacancy - ranges from 3.5% to 5.5% per year depending on location and specification. Gross yield figures of 7-8% cited by developers do not account for these deductions.
Does airport passenger traffic affect Phuket condominium prices?
Yes, but with a lag. A 10% increase in HKT arrivals typically translates into higher short-term rental occupancy within one to two quarters, and then feeds into higher asking prices on new project launches with a delay of two to four additional quarters. HKT handled approximately 18.7 million passengers in 2025 per Airport of Thailand data.
How does the 49% foreign-ownership quota work in practice?
Thai law limits foreign freehold ownership to 49% of total floor area in any condominium building. In Bang Tao and Kamala projects with strong international marketing, this quota is sometimes exhausted at the presale stage. We monitor quota status across tracked projects and recommend buyers verify the current available foreign quota directly with the developer before making any payment.
When in the Phuket supply cycle do secondary-market prices typically correct?
Based on historical patterns, the most favourable secondary-market entry points have appeared 12-24 months after a handover peak, when owners of unsold or unrented units reduce asking prices to generate liquidity. The current handover peak (2025-2027) suggests that window could open across some districts in 2027-2028.
What are the main ongoing costs of owning a condominium on Phuket?
Key annual costs include: common area maintenance (CAM) fees of 40-80 THB per sqm per month, a one-time sinking fund payment at handover of 500-800 THB per sqm, property tax (0.02-0.3% of assessed value), insurance, and rental management fees of 20-30% of gross rental income if the unit is let.
Should a buyer wait for price drops on Phuket in 2026?
Under our baseline scenario, we do not expect headline catalogue prices on new launches to fall. However, we do expect effective discounts of 3-5% in the form of incentives and extras on completed unsold units. The secondary market in Bang Tao and Kamala could see corrections of 5-10% over the next 12-18 months as per-market estimates, making selective opportunistic purchases more viable in those districts.
What is the key due-diligence checklist before buying in the current cycle?
Our analysts recommend verifying three parameters before any purchase decision: the remaining foreign-ownership quota in the specific building, the number of competing projects within a 1-kilometre radius (cross-referenced against EIA permit records), and the developer-provided rental yield figure restated on a net basis after all operating costs.
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