The median price per square metre for a new condominium on Phuket reached 128,000 THB/m² in Q1 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.2% based on transaction registry data. This marks the third consecutive quarter in which annual price growth has exceeded 8%. For international buyers tracking costs in non-THB currencies, the USD reference point is equally useful: at approximately 1 THB = 0.028 USD (March 2026), the median new-build price translates to roughly 3,580 USD/m² - a figure our analysts use when benchmarking against comparable resort markets in Southeast Asia.
The highest medians are concentrated along the western coastal strip running from Bang Tao through Layan to Surin, where new-build developer projects are priced between 155,000 and 195,000 THB/m². At the other end of the spectrum, Karon and Kata offer resale stock from approximately 75,000 THB/m², though this reflects buildings completed between 2008 and 2014 with correspondingly dated fit-outs.
Quick answer
- Median price for a new condo on Phuket, Q1 2026: 128,000 THB/m² (approx. 3,580 USD/m² at March 2026 rates)
- Year-on-year change (Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025): +9.2%, per transaction registry data
- Most expensive district: Layan - median of 192,000 THB/m² for off-plan projects
- New units launched for sale on Phuket in Q1 2026: approx. 2,400 (based on our estimates from developer monitoring)
- Average short-term rental occupancy, January to March 2026: 78% in the Bang Tao - Surin corridor
- Pipeline of new units in Cherng Talay (Bang Tao, Layan, Surin) for 2026-2027: approx. 4,200 units, up 35% versus the equivalent two-year period in 2024-2025
Options and scenarios
Scenario A: continuation of the upward trend
Phuket International Airport (HKT) handled 3.9 million passengers in Q1 2026 - a gain of 11% against the same period in 2025, per Airports of Thailand data. Our analysts track this indicator as a leading proxy for short-term rental demand, with a lag of one to two quarters, and as an indirect signal for listing-price pressure with a lag of three to four quarters.
If the 2026 monsoon season (May to October) generates visitor volumes comparable to 2025, rental occupancy across the western coast should hold above 65% and upward price pressure will persist. Under this scenario, the median price for new condominiums on Phuket could exceed 135,000 THB/m² by year-end 2026.
The critical variable is the developer delivery pipeline. In Bang Tao alone, more than 1,800 units are under construction with scheduled completion in Q2 and Q3 2026. If absorption rates hold at 60% or above, oversupply should not materialise in a damaging way.
Scenario B: supply-side correction
Across the Cherng Talay area (covering Bang Tao, Layan and Surin), we estimate a combined pipeline of 4,200 new units for 2026-2027. That is 35% more than the equivalent two-year pipeline in 2024-2025. If absorption drops below 50% - for example as a result of tighter visa policies affecting Chinese or Russian buyer cohorts - prices in the sub-5 million THB segment could correct by 5-10% over a three-to-four quarter horizon.
Koh Samui presents a materially different supply picture. As of Q1 2026, only 380 condominium units were under construction island-wide, concentrated in Bophut and Chaweng Noi. The Samui market is less exposed to supply shocks but also less liquid, which constrains exit options.
Scenario C: THB currency movement
Over the past 12 months, the THB/USD rate has fluctuated within a range relevant to international buyers. If the Bank of Thailand proceeds with the 25 basis-point cut the market was pricing for H2 2026, while the US Federal Reserve holds, the baht could soften modestly. For buyers converting from stronger currencies, this would reduce the effective purchase cost by an estimated 3-5% even if THB-denominated prices continue rising. Our analysts monitor central bank policy signals from both sides as a directional indicator for this adjustment.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Bang Tao - Layan | Kamala - Surin | Karon - Kata | Rawai - Nai Harn | Koh Samui (Bophut) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median price, new build (THB/m²) | 168,000 | 145,000 | 95,000 | 88,000 | 110,000 |
| Median price, resale market (THB/m²) | 120,000 | 105,000 | 75,000 | 68,000 | 82,000 |
| Short-term rental occupancy, Q1 2026 | 78% | 74% | 62% | 58% | 65% |
| Pipeline of new units 2026-2027 | 2,400 | 1,100 | 350 | 500 | 380 |
| Estimated gross yield (short-term rental) | 6.0-7.5% | 6.5-8.0% | 5.5-7.0% | 5.0-6.5% | 5.5-7.0% |
| Approx. USD/m², new build (March 2026) | 4,700 | 4,060 | 2,660 | 2,460 | 3,080 |
Risks and mistakes
1. Ignoring the delivery pipeline. A common error we observe is focusing solely on historical price appreciation while overlooking the volume of units under construction. The Cherng Talay pipeline of 4,200 units over two years represents a genuine supply-pressure risk, particularly in the sub-5 million THB segment where competition is already intense.
2. Treating gross yield as net yield. Property management fees on Phuket typically consume 20-30% of gross rental income. Add Common Area Fees (40-80 THB/m²/month), building insurance, rental income tax (12.5% withholding or progressive personal income tax, depending on structure), and sinking fund contributions - and net yield frequently falls to 3.5-5.0% in our data sets. The gap between advertised and realised returns is consistently underestimated.
3. Underestimating currency risk. Exchange-rate movements of 8-10% per year can neutralise an entire year of rental income for foreign buyers. We monitor the correlation between THB movements and central bank policy on a rolling basis.
4. Buying off-plan without verifying developer track record. In Q1 2026, our team identified at least three projects on Phuket with completion delays exceeding 12 months. Reviewing a developer's actual delivery history - not marketing materials - is a non-negotiable step before making any payment.
5. Overpaying for sea-view premiums. In Bang Tao, a 'sea view' designation adds 30-45% to the unit price relative to comparable non-view units in the same building. Booking platform data in our monitoring suggests the premium on daily rental rates for sea-view units is only 12-18%. The payback period on the view premium is therefore considerably longer than sales materials typically imply.
FAQ
What is the median price per square metre for a new condo on Phuket in 2026?
Based on Q1 2026 transaction registry data, the island-wide median is 128,000 THB/m². District-level medians range from 88,000 THB/m² in Rawai - Nai Harn to 192,000 THB/m² for off-plan projects in Layan.
Which Phuket districts have the highest condominium prices?
The most expensive corridor runs along the western coast from Layan through Bang Tao to Surin. Off-plan project medians in Layan exceed 190,000 THB/m² as of Q1 2026. Kamala is the next tier at approximately 145,000 THB/m² for new builds.
How much new condominium supply is entering the Phuket market in 2026?
Approximately 2,400 new units were launched for sale in Q1 2026 alone, based on our estimates from developer monitoring. The combined 2026-2027 pipeline for Cherng Talay (Bang Tao, Layan, Surin) stands at roughly 4,200 units - up 35% versus the 2024-2025 equivalent period.
What gross rental yields can investors expect on Phuket?
Short-term rental gross yields range from approximately 5.0% in Rawai - Nai Harn to 8.0% in Kamala - Surin, based on our market estimates for Q1 2026. After management fees (20-30%), common area charges, tax and sinking fund contributions, net yields typically settle in the 3.5-5.0% range.
Are condominium prices on Koh Samui rising as fast as on Phuket?
No. Year-on-year growth on Koh Samui is running at approximately 5-6%, compared with 9.2% on Phuket. The Bophut median for new condominiums stands at around 110,000 THB/m² in Q1 2026. The Samui market is smaller, less liquid, and the active construction pipeline of 380 units limits supply-side risk.
How does currency movement affect the effective cost of buying a condo in Thailand?
Exchange-rate shifts of 8-10% annually are common for THB against major currencies, and can materially change the effective purchase price in a buyer's home currency. A moderate THB softening of around 5% would reduce the THB-denominated acquisition cost for foreign buyers even if baht-priced listings remain flat. We track central bank signals from the Bank of Thailand as a leading indicator.
How many units were completed on Phuket in recent quarters?
Based on our estimates, approximately 1,600 units were delivered in Q4 2025. Completions dropped to around 1,100 in Q1 2026, partly reflecting seasonal construction patterns - wet-season delays typically push delivery schedules back by two to three months.
Does tourist traffic at Phuket airport influence property prices?
It does, but with a lag. We treat HKT passenger arrivals as a leading indicator for short-term rental occupancy (lag of one to two quarters) and as an indirect signal for listing-price momentum (lag of three to four quarters). The 3.9 million passengers recorded in Q1 2026, up 11% year-on-year, supports a positive near-term demand outlook.
What are the main risks when buying off-plan condominiums on Phuket?
Three risks stand out in our monitoring: delayed delivery (at least three projects recorded completion delays exceeding 12 months in Q1 2026), segment-level oversupply in the sub-5 million THB bracket, and the absence of buyer-payment protection mechanisms comparable to those in many other markets. Verifying the developer's actual completion history and analysing the local pipeline are essential steps before committing funds.
Quarterly data confirms that the Phuket condominium market remains in an upward phase, but with mounting supply pressure concentrated in the western coastal districts. The key variables we continue to monitor are: absorption rates for Cherng Talay units due in H2 2026, the direction of THB against major buyer currencies, and any shifts in Thailand's visa policies affecting the dominant foreign buyer groups. We publish updated quarterly summaries and can prepare location-specific data briefs on request.
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