In Q1 2026, the median price per square metre for new condominiums on Phuket reached 138,000 THB/m², representing a year-on-year increase of 9.2% based on Land Office transaction records and the developer-listing monitoring our analysts conduct on a continuous basis. At a USD/THB reference rate of approximately 33.5 (as of March 2026), that translates to roughly 4,120 USD/m² - a figure that sits in an interesting position relative to comparable resort markets in Southeast Asia, while offering a markedly different rental income profile.
Price momentum is not uniform across the island. In the western-coast districts of Bang Tao, Layan and Surin, the median has moved above 155,000 THB/m², while the southern end of the island - Rawai and Nai Harn - remains closer to 115,000 THB/m². That spread of roughly 35% is something we track quarter by quarter in our data sets.
Quick answer
- Median new-condo price on Phuket in Q1 2026: 138,000 THB/m² (approx. 4,120 USD/m²)
- Year-on-year price growth (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026): +9.2% per Land Office transaction records
- Most expensive districts: Bang Tao and Layan - median 155,000-170,000 THB/m²
- Most affordable tourist districts: Rawai and Karon - median 110,000-120,000 THB/m²
- New units in the delivery pipeline (2026-2027): approx. 4,800 per market estimates
- Short-term rental occupancy during peak season (December 2025 - February 2026): 78-84% across the western beach corridor
Options and scenarios
Scenario A: continued upward trend (base case)
Arrival figures at Phuket International Airport (HKT) for the 2025/2026 season exceeded 5.1 million passengers over the November-to-March window, a rise of 11% against the same period a year earlier, based on Airports of Thailand data. Strong visitor flows feed through to new-project asking prices with a lag of roughly two to three quarters - developers watch short-term rental occupancy and reprice subsequent launch phases accordingly.
Under this scenario, our analysts project median prices growing at 7-10% per year through the end of 2026. The pipeline of approximately 4,800 units due for completion by end-2027 (based on our estimates) is absorbed by foreign demand, currently led by buyers from Russia, China and various European markets.
Scenario B: demand slowdown (alternative case)
Two factors introduce downside risk. First, a potential tightening of foreign-ownership rules under a proposed amendment to the Foreign Business Act, which has been under parliamentary discussion since Q3 2025. Second, currency weakness among key buyer nationalities - in previous cycles (2022-2023), a significant depreciation of the Russian rouble correlated with a 15-25% contraction in Russian buyer transactions. If demand from that segment contracts by around 20% without a corresponding reduction in the supply pipeline, median price growth could slow to a modest 2-4% annually.
Scenario C: localised correction in specific districts
In Bang Tao and, to a lesser extent, Bophut on Koh Samui, our analysts observe a building supply overhang. In Bang Tao alone we are currently monitoring 14 active projects with scheduled completions in 2026-2027. Should pre-sale absorption rates drop below 60% in these schemes, secondary-market prices in those specific micro-locations could pull back by 5-8% from their recent highs. This is a district-level scenario, not a market-wide one.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Bang Tao / Layan | Kamala / Surin | Rawai / Nai Harn | Karon / Kata |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median price (THB/m², Q1 2026) | 155,000-170,000 | 140,000-160,000 | 110,000-120,000 | 115,000-130,000 |
| Median price (USD/m², approx.) | 4,630-5,070 | 4,180-4,780 | 3,280-3,580 | 3,430-3,880 |
| Year-on-year change | +10-12% | +8-10% | +6-8% | +5-7% |
| Pipeline units (2026-2027) | approx. 1,600 | approx. 900 | approx. 700 | approx. 500 |
| Rental occupancy (peak, Dec-Feb) | 80-84% | 78-83% | 70-76% | 72-78% |
| Gross yield (annual estimate) | 5.5-6.5% | 5.8-7.0% | 6.0-7.5% | 5.5-6.8% |
| Key foreign buyer origins | Russia, Europe, China | Europe, Australia | Europe, Russia | Russia, China |
Risks and mistakes
Currency exposure. Buyers converting a home-country currency into THB carry two layers of risk: movement in the property price itself, and movement in the exchange rate. Over the past twelve months the THB has traded across a meaningful range against major currencies. On a purchase priced at 5 million THB, a shift of just 5% in the exchange rate produces a swing of roughly 250,000 THB in the effective cost. We recommend stress-testing any acquisition at a weaker-currency scenario before committing.
Yield inflation in marketing materials. Promotional materials for new Phuket condominiums frequently cite gross yields of 8-10% per year. Based on our estimates, realistic gross yields for well-located units (western coast, close to beach access) run between 5.5% and 7.5% annually. After deducting property management fees, applicable taxes and furniture replacement costs - which together typically consume 15-25% of gross rental revenue - net yields settle in the 4.0-6.0% range.
Supply concentration in Bang Tao. Fourteen active development projects in a single district represents a meaningful concentration of supply. Our analysts track pre-sale velocity each quarter. A fall below 55% pre-sale absorption in Q2 2026 would be treated as an early-warning signal for secondary prices in that corridor.
Developer-stage payment risk. Stage payments made to a developer in Thailand during the construction period are not held in any protected or segregated account structure. While developer insolvency has been statistically rare on Phuket, the risk is not zero. Our team verifies the completion track record and financial standing of each developer before including a project in any briefing or data comparison.
Regulatory shifts. Proposals that would allow foreign nationals to purchase land parcels (up to one rai) have circulated in 2024 and 2025 but have not passed into law. If such a reform were enacted, demand could shift from the condominium segment toward landed property, which might paradoxically soften condominium price growth even in a healthy overall market.
FAQ
What is the current price per square metre for a new condo on Phuket in 2026?
The median asking price for new condominiums on Phuket stood at approximately 138,000 THB/m² in Q1 2026, based on Land Office records and developer-listing data monitored by our team. Prices range from around 110,000 THB/m² in Rawai to above 170,000 THB/m² in Layan.
How fast are Phuket condo prices rising?
Year-on-year growth from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026 was 9.2% at the market median. The fastest appreciation is in the Bang Tao - Layan belt at +10-12%, while the Karon - Kata zone is growing more slowly at +5-7%. Our analysts update these figures on a quarterly basis.
What is a realistic rental yield for a Phuket condominium?
Based on our estimates, gross yields for well-positioned units on the western coast run at 5.5-7.5% per year. Once management fees, taxes and furnishing costs are accounted for, net yields typically fall in the 4.0-6.0% range. Figures above 8% cited in developer marketing materials are generally not supported by actual operating performance data.
Are Koh Samui condo prices rising at the same pace as Phuket?
Koh Samui is a smaller, less liquid market. The median for new condominiums in Bophut and Chaweng was in the range of 120,000-140,000 THB/m² in Q1 2026, per market estimates tracked by our team. Annual price growth is running at roughly 5-7%, which is below the Phuket average, partly reflecting a smaller share of Asian institutional and retail demand.
How much new supply is entering the Phuket condominium market?
Based on our estimates, approximately 4,800 new units are in the delivery pipeline with completion dates through end-2027. The heaviest concentration is in Bang Tao (around 1,600 units) and the Kamala-Surin corridor (around 900 units).
Can a foreign national own a Phuket condominium outright?
Yes. Under the Thai Condominium Act, foreign nationals may hold a condominium unit on a freehold basis, provided the aggregate foreign-owned share of a building does not exceed 49% of total usable floor area. Purchase funds must be remitted from outside Thailand and documented with a Foreign Exchange Transaction Form issued by a Thai bank.
How do tourist arrival numbers relate to condo prices?
Our analysts use HKT arrival statistics as a leading indicator. A sustained 10% increase in passenger volumes tends to feed through to higher short-term rental occupancy within two to three quarters, which then improves the investment case and gives developers grounds to raise prices on subsequent project phases.
What developer-stage risks should buyers be aware of?
Stage payments made during construction in Thailand do not benefit from any protected account arrangement. Our team reviews the completion history and financial condition of each developer before including their projects in our data briefings. Buyers should independently verify how many projects a developer has delivered on time and on specification.
Researching property in Phuket or Koh Samui? Get in touch - our analysts will prepare a data brief for your shortlisted location.