The median price of condominiums in Phuket's beachside segment rose 8.3% year-on-year based on Q1 2026 transaction data, reaching approximately 128,000 THB per sq m for properties within one kilometre of the shoreline. This extends a trend our analysts have tracked since mid-2024, when the market entered a clear growth phase following the pandemic-era correction.
In our quarterly tracking series we monitor transaction prices across six key Phuket districts and benchmark them against Koh Samui dynamics. The sections below present the most relevant data from the past four quarters, together with our interpretation of the structural forces shaping the current market.
For international buyers transacting in major currencies, the exchange-rate context is material. At the start of 2026 the USD/THB rate sits in the 33.5-34.2 range, while EUR/THB hovers near 36.5-37.0. A 30 sq m studio in Bang Tao priced at roughly 3.9 million THB therefore translates to approximately 114,000-116,000 USD or 105,000-107,000 EUR at prevailing rates - a figure that a year earlier would have been noticeably lower.
Quick answer
- Phuket beachside condominium median, Q1 2026: 128,000 THB/sq m (within 1 km of the beach)
- Year-on-year price growth (Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025): +8.3% per transaction registries
- Highest-priced districts: Surin and Kamala - new-project median above 155,000 THB/sq m
- Lowest-priced beachside districts: Karon and Nai Harn - range 95,000-110,000 THB/sq m
- Koh Samui (Bophut, Chaweng): median 18-22% lower than comparable Phuket beachside locations
- New units in the Phuket pipeline for 2026-2027 completion: an estimated 4,200 units, with over 60% concentrated in the Bang Tao - Layan corridor
Options and scenarios
Scenario A: continued growth (probability - high)
Passenger arrivals at Phuket International Airport (HKT) exceeded 9.4 million in 2025, a figure 11% above 2024 levels per Airports of Thailand data. Our analysts monitor the lagged correlation - typically 2-3 quarters - between arrival volumes and short-term rental occupancy. Based on our estimates, occupancy in the Bang Tao and Surin condominium segments ran at 72-78% during the November 2025 - March 2026 high season, keeping rental yields attractive and sustaining investment-driven demand.
In this scenario, prices advance a further 6-9% annually, and supply pressure from incoming completions is absorbed by foreign demand originating primarily from Russia, China, and Western Europe. Buyers from other parts of Europe represent a small but growing cohort; in our data sets they account for roughly 1-2% of foreign transactions on Phuket.
Scenario B: deceleration to nominal growth (probability - moderate)
If the 4,200-unit pipeline translates into oversupply in the studio and one-bedroom segment along the Bang Tao - Layan corridor, price growth could decelerate to 2-4% annually. The key indicator we monitor is the ratio of units sold to units delivered. In Q4 2025 that ratio stood at approximately 0.68 based on our estimates, signalling mild saturation in that specific sub-segment.
Scenario C: localised correction (probability - low but real)
A material decline in arrivals - for instance below 7.5 million annually triggered by a global downturn or significant visa-policy changes - could produce a price correction of 5-10% in the most saturated districts. Historically, this pattern played out in 2020-2021, when transaction prices in Bang Tao fell 12-15% from 2019 peaks before recovering.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Bang Tao / Layan | Kamala / Surin | Karon / Kata | Rawai / Nai Harn | Koh Samui (Bophut) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median price (THB/sq m, Q1 2026) | 130,000 | 155,000 | 98,000 | 95,000 | 105,000 |
| Year-on-year change | +9.1% | +10.2% | +5.8% | +6.3% | +7.0% |
| New units in pipeline (2026-2027) | approx. 2,500 | approx. 800 | approx. 350 | approx. 250 | approx. 400 |
| Est. rental occupancy (peak season) | 72-78% | 75-82% | 65-72% | 60-68% | 62-70% |
| Est. gross rental yield (annual) | 5.5-6.5% | 5.0-6.0% | 5.8-7.0% | 5.5-6.8% | 5.0-6.5% |
| Oversupply risk | High | Medium | Low | Low | Medium |
| Approx. USD/sq m (rate 33.8) | 3,846 | 4,586 | 2,899 | 2,811 | 3,107 |
Risks and mistakes
Currency exposure. The THB has moved against major currencies within a meaningful range over the past 12 months. For a transaction valued at 5 million THB, a 5% shift in the prevailing exchange rate alters the foreign-currency cost by roughly 250,000 THB equivalent. Our analysts recommend tracking both USD/THB and EUR/THB, as many international buyers route transfers through EUR.
Oversupply in Bang Tao. The Bang Tao - Layan corridor accounts for over 60% of Phuket's new pipeline. We track the sold-to-delivered ratio on a quarterly basis. Buyers entering off-plan in this zone should stress-test their occupancy assumptions at 10-15 percentage points below developer projections, as unit density is rising faster than in any other district.
Gross yield vs. net yield confusion. In all our data sets we flag explicitly that gross yield figures exclude property management fees (typically 20-30% of rental income), income tax obligations, common-area fees (40-80 THB/sq m/month across most managed condominiums), and vacancy periods. Net yield typically runs 1.5-2.5 percentage points below gross yield. Comparing gross figures across markets is a frequent analytical error.
Foreign ownership quota and legal title. A condominium purchased within the statutory foreign quota - up to 49% of a building's total floor area held by non-Thai nationals - confers full freehold title. Units sold beyond that quota are structured as leasehold, which materially reduces resale liquidity and value. We verify quota status on every project we track.
Regulatory environment. The Thai government periodically debates amendments to foreign-ownership rules. As of early 2026, no concrete legislative changes have been enacted, but we monitor proposals relating to possible land ownership access for foreign buyers, which - if passed - could reshape demand dynamics across both Phuket and Koh Samui.
FAQ
What is the price per square metre for a Phuket condominium in 2026?
Based on Q1 2026 transaction data, the beachside segment median (within 1 km of the shore) is approximately 128,000 THB/sq m. Prices diverge significantly by district: from around 95,000 THB/sq m in Rawai and Nai Harn to over 155,000 THB/sq m in Kamala and Surin for new-build projects.
How are Phuket condominium prices moving on a quarterly basis?
Our quarterly data sets show a consistent upward trend since Q3 2024. The year-on-year increase for Q1 2026 stands at 8.3% for beachside medians. On a quarter-on-quarter basis (Q4 2025 to Q1 2026), the advance was approximately 1.8-2.2%.
Are condominium prices on Koh Samui lower than on Phuket?
Yes. The Bophut median on Koh Samui sits 18-22% below comparable beachside Phuket locations in our data. Buyers should, however, factor in lower secondary-market liquidity on Koh Samui and weaker off-season rental demand relative to Phuket's larger international tourism base.
What is the realistic net rental yield for a Phuket condominium?
Gross yield ranges from 5.0% to 7.0% annually depending on district and unit type. After accounting for management fees, taxes, maintenance costs, and vacancy, net yield typically falls to 3.0-4.5%. Karon and Kata produce some of the stronger net figures in our data sets, combining lower entry prices with steady tourist demand.
How many new condominiums are being delivered in Phuket in 2026-2027?
Based on our pipeline estimates, approximately 4,200 units are scheduled for completion across 2026-2027, with over 2,500 of those in the Bang Tao - Layan corridor. This represents material supply pressure, especially in the studio and one-bedroom categories.
Can a foreign national purchase a Phuket condominium on a freehold basis?
Yes, provided the purchase falls within the foreign ownership quota: a maximum of 49% of a building's total usable floor area may be held by non-Thai nationals on a freehold title. The purchase funds must be transferred from abroad in foreign currency, supported by the appropriate bank documentation (TT3 form or equivalent Foreign Exchange Transaction form).
Which Phuket districts carry the lowest oversupply risk?
Based on our pipeline data relative to existing stock, Karon, Kata, Rawai, and Nai Harn have the lowest ratio of planned completions to current supply. Bang Tao and Layan represent the highest oversupply risk in the 2026-2027 window.
How does exchange-rate movement affect a Phuket property investment?
For a transaction priced at 4 million THB, a 5% currency move translates to a cost difference of approximately 200,000 THB in the buyer's home currency. Our analysts recommend building a currency-movement buffer into investment return calculations and monitoring both USD/THB and EUR/THB rates through the purchase and hold period.
Researching property in Phuket or Koh Samui? Get in touch - our analysts will prepare a data brief for your shortlisted location.