In Q1 2026, the average asking price for condominiums along Phuket's western coastline rose 8.2% year-on-year, reaching 148,000 THB per square metre - based on our quarterly compilation of more than 1,200 active listings. At the same time, the volume of new foreign-buyer transactions registered at the Land Office fell 3.4% quarter-on-quarter versus Q4 2025, signalling a cooling in demand momentum even as headline prices continue to climb.
Our analysts track seven indicators that together paint a coherent picture of the residential market across Phuket and Koh Samui: the development pipeline, asking versus transaction prices, foreign registration volumes, the THB/EUR and THB/USD exchange environment, short-term rental occupancy, arrivals at Phuket International Airport (HKT), and the Thai Building Cost Index (BCI). The sections below present the current state of each indicator and the relationships between them.
Quick answer
- Average condo asking price on Phuket's western coast in Q1 2026: 148,000 THB/sqm (+8.2% year-on-year)
- Development pipeline in Bang Tao, Layan and Kamala: approximately 2,800 units scheduled for completion by end-2027 (based on our estimates)
- Foreign-buyer transaction volume (Land Office registrations, Q1 2026 data): down 3.4% quarter-on-quarter
- Short-term rental occupancy during peak season (December 2025 - March 2026): average 74% in Kamala and Surin; 68% in Rawai and Nai Harn
- HKT airport arrivals in Q1 2026: 4.1 million passengers (+6% year-on-year, per Airports of Thailand data)
- Thai Building Cost Index: up 4.7% year-on-year, sustaining upward pressure on new-build prices
- Pipeline growth: the Bang Tao and Layan pipeline has expanded approximately 22% compared with the same forward horizon measured one year ago
Options and scenarios
Scenario A: continued price appreciation
If HKT arrivals maintain a trajectory of +5-7% year-on-year and the pipeline in Bang Tao and Layan does not accelerate beyond roughly 3,000 units per year, our analysts model a continuation of asking-price growth in the 6-9% annual range. Short-term occupancy in premium districts should remain above 70%. This scenario favours buyers who secured units before 2025.
Scenario B: stabilisation under supply pressure
Should tourist traffic slow - for instance, if Chinese arrivals fall below 2024 levels - and a large volume of completions hits the market simultaneously in the second half of 2026, asking prices could flatten or correct by 2-4%. Short-term occupancy in non-beachfront districts such as Karon and Kata may slip below 60% in this case.
Scenario C: currency-driven entry window
If the Thai baht weakens a further 3-5% against major currencies - for example following Bank of Thailand rate adjustments - international buyers transacting in USD or EUR would gain an additional effective discount of 5-7% on an annualised basis. In this scenario, nominal prices in THB continue rising while the real cost in foreign currency terms stagnates or declines.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Bang Tao / Layan | Kamala / Surin | Rawai / Nai Harn | Koh Samui (Bophut / Maenam) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average condo price (THB/sqm) | 155,000 | 162,000 | 105,000 | 88,000 |
| Year-on-year price change | +9.1% | +10.3% | +5.8% | +4.2% |
| Pipeline to end-2027 | approx. 1,600 units | approx. 800 units | approx. 400 units | approx. 350 units |
| Peak-season occupancy | 72% | 76% | 68% | 62% |
| Off-season occupancy | 48% | 52% | 41% | 35% |
| Estimated gross yield (annual) | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% |
| Dominant buyer segment | Russia, China, Europe | Europe, Australia | Europe, Russia | Europe, Middle East |
Figures in the table are drawn from our Q1 2026 data sets, cross-referenced against Land Office registries for Phuket Province and Surat Thani Province.
How airport arrivals translate into rental occupancy
We model this relationship with a 30-60 day lag. Based on our estimates, each 1 percentage point of HKT arrival growth above the baseline trend corresponds to approximately 0.6 percentage points of additional short-term rental occupancy in coastal districts. The lag exists because platform bookings (via Airbnb and Booking.com) typically precede physical arrival by three to six weeks. On Koh Samui, where Samui Airport (USM) handled roughly 0.9 million passengers in Q1 2026, the total traffic base is far smaller, but the correlation with occupancy is stronger given the limited rental inventory.
Supply pressure: the development pipeline by district
In Bang Tao and Layan combined, we track 12 active development projects with planned handovers between 2026 and 2027, totalling approximately 1,600 new units. That represents a pipeline expansion of roughly 22% compared with the equivalent forward horizon measured a year ago. In Kamala and Surin the increment is more moderate (approximately 800 units), but because those districts have a smaller existing residential base, the relative supply pressure is broadly comparable.
The Koh Samui picture is distinct. The Bophut and Maenam pipeline stands at around 350 units through end-2027. With more limited foreign demand and constrained airport infrastructure, that market is more sensitive to incremental supply. In Lamai and Chaweng, scheduled completions are even smaller (approximately 180 units in aggregate), and the product mix there skews toward villas rather than condominiums.
Risks and mistakes
Over-relying on gross yield figures. Developer-published returns of 6-7% do not account for property management fees (typically 15-25% of rental revenue), income tax, maintenance costs, or vacancy periods. Based on our estimates, net yield in 2026 for premium-district condominiums in Phuket is realistically 3.5-4.5% per year.
Pipeline risk. The concentration of completions in Bang Tao and Layan during 2026-2027 could temporarily depress short-term occupancy by 3-5 percentage points if tourist demand does not keep pace.
Currency exposure. The baht has moved more than 10% in either direction against major currencies over the past five years. Buyers transacting in foreign currency carry an exchange-rate risk that is invisible in developer price lists denominated in THB.
Confusing asking prices with transaction prices. On Phuket's secondary market, the average negotiated discount from asking price is 8-12% as of Q1 2026. On the primary market, outright discounts are less common, but developers routinely offer payment schedules spread over 24-36 months, which effectively lowers the present cost of entry.
Ignoring seasonality in yield calculations. Short-term occupancy in Rawai drops from 68% during peak season to 41% off-season. A yield projection built solely on peak-season data overstates the annual figure by 25-35%.
FAQ
What is the price per square metre for a condo in Phuket in 2026?
The average asking price along Phuket's western coastline is approximately 148,000 THB per square metre as of Q1 2026. In premium locations such as Kamala and Surin it reaches around 162,000 THB/sqm, while Rawai and Nai Harn average closer to 105,000 THB/sqm.
What are the price trends for Phuket property in 2026?
Asking prices are rising at 5.8-10.3% year-on-year depending on the district. Kamala and Surin are appreciating fastest; Rawai and Nai Harn are growing more slowly. On Koh Samui, the pace is lower still at approximately 4.2% year-on-year in Bophut and Maenam.
Are airport arrival statistics a useful indicator for the property market?
Yes. We monitor the correlation between HKT arrivals and short-term rental occupancy and find that each 1 percentage point of arrival growth above trend translates into approximately 0.6 percentage points of occupancy growth, with a 30-60 day lag.
What is the realistic rental yield on a Phuket condo?
Based on our estimates for 2025-2026, net annual yield in premium districts is 3.5-4.5%. The gross figures of 6-7% frequently cited in marketing materials do not include management fees, income tax, maintenance, or vacancy.
How does currency movement affect investment returns?
Over the past 12 months the baht has softened approximately 2% against the euro and other major currencies. That means real price appreciation measured in foreign-currency terms is lower than the nominal THB figure. Over a five-year horizon, exchange-rate volatility against the baht has exceeded 10% in either direction.
How many new condos will be delivered in Phuket by 2027?
Our pipeline data for Phuket's western coast shows approximately 2,800 condominium units scheduled for completion by end-2027. The largest concentration is in Bang Tao and Layan, accounting for roughly 1,600 of those units.
What is short-term rental occupancy like on Koh Samui?
During the peak season (December 2025 - March 2026), occupancy in the Bophut and Maenam areas averaged approximately 62%. Off-season it falls to around 35%. Koh Samui has a smaller tourist base than Phuket and exhibits more pronounced seasonality.
Is the Phuket property market overheating?
Prices are rising, but the supply pipeline is also expanding. The key ratio to monitor is new completions relative to transaction volume. If supply begins to outpace demand consistently, a correction becomes more probable. As of Q1 2026 our analysts characterise the market as being in a mature expansionary phase rather than a speculative bubble.
Which Phuket districts offer the highest estimated gross yield in 2026?
Rawai and Nai Harn lead on estimated gross yield at approximately 6.5%, reflecting lower entry prices relative to rental income potential. Bang Tao and Layan follow at around 5.8%. Kamala and Surin, where capital values are highest, show the lowest gross yield at approximately 5.4%.
How reliable is the Thai Building Cost Index as a leading indicator?
The Thai BCI measures input costs for construction materials and labour. A 4.7% year-on-year rise as of Q1 2026 signals sustained cost pressure that developers are likely to pass through into new-build asking prices over the following two to four quarters. We treat it as a medium-term floor indicator for primary-market pricing.
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