In Q1 2026, the average asking price for condominiums in Phuket's coastal zone reached 142,000 THB per sq m, representing an 8.3% year-on-year increase. We compile these figures each quarter by cross-referencing Land Office transaction records with developer pricing across seven key districts on the island.
For internationally based buyers, the currency context matters. As of end-March 2026, the THB/USD rate translated the premium segment's per-square-metre price to roughly 3,950 USD/sq m (based on our estimates). That figure has risen on two counts: baht appreciation and upward movement in base prices. Below, we present the seven indicators our analysts consider most representative of Phuket's current residential market and its near-term trajectory.
Quick answer
- Average condominium asking price in Phuket's coastal zone: 142,000 THB/sq m (Q1 2026), up 8.3% year on year
- New units scheduled for completion in 2026: approximately 4,200 (based on our estimates), with over 40% concentrated in Bang Tao and Layan
- Passenger arrivals at Phuket International Airport (HKT): 3.45 million in January-March 2026 (Airports of Thailand data), up 6% year on year
- Short-term rental occupancy during high season (December 2025 to March 2026): 78% in Kamala and Surin, 72% in Karon and Rawai
- Foreign buyer share in registered condominium transactions: approximately 52% (Land Office, Phuket, Q4 2025 data)
- THB/USD rate: stable within a narrow corridor since mid-2025, with no material disruption to acquisition costs observed in our Q1 2026 data sets
- Net rental yield in professionally managed stock: 5.2-6.8% per annum, depending on district and specification (based on our estimates)
Options and scenarios
Baseline scenario: steady appreciation alongside rising supply
We have tracked Phuket's developer pipeline continuously since 2023. The approximately 4,200 units scheduled for handover in 2026 represent the highest annual volume in five years. The bulk is concentrated in Bang Tao (around 1,100 units) and Layan (around 700 units). Under the baseline scenario, we project absorption rates of 65-70%, which would generate moderate downward price pressure in those two sub-markets and slow headline price growth to 4-5% year on year in the second half of 2026.
Koh Samui presents a different picture. New condominium supply there remains constrained - per our estimates, roughly 380 units will be delivered in 2026, predominantly in Bophut and Chaweng. Against steady demand from European buyers, pool-villa prices on Koh Samui are advancing more slowly but more consistently: 5-6% year on year.
Optimistic scenario: tourism arrivals as a leading indicator
Our analysts treat HKT passenger statistics as a leading indicator for rental occupancy, with a lag of one to two quarters. The 3.45 million arrivals recorded in Q1 2026 are approaching 2019 peak levels. If that momentum holds through the low season (May to October 2026), short-term rental occupancy could exceed 60% even in traditionally softer months. Under that outcome, annualised net yields would improve by an estimated 0.5-0.8 percentage points relative to the baseline.
For Koh Samui, the critical variable is direct connectivity via Bangkok Airways from Bangkok and the continuation of European charter services that expanded in 2025, lifting high-season arrivals by roughly 12%. We are monitoring whether additional slots at Samui Airport (USM) will be confirmed for the 2026/2027 season.
Downside scenario: oversupply and selective price correction
The primary risk we identify sits in the sub-100,000 THB/sq m segment of districts located further from the beach, notably Chalong and Kathu. If absorption falls below 55%, some developers in those pockets may discount list prices by 10-15%. We do not expect that scenario to affect premium stock in Surin or Layan, where demand from Russian, Chinese and Western European buyers remains structurally supported.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Bang Tao / Layan | Kamala / Surin | Karon / Rawai | Bophut / Maenam (Koh Samui) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average price (THB/sq m) | 155,000 | 165,000 | 110,000 | 125,000 |
| Year-on-year price change | +9.1% | +7.5% | +6.2% | +5.8% |
| New supply in 2026 (units) | approx. 1,800 | approx. 600 | approx. 900 | approx. 380 |
| High-season rental occupancy | 76% | 78% | 72% | 68% |
| Net yield estimate | 5.5-6.2% | 5.8-6.8% | 5.2-5.9% | 5.0-6.0% |
| Foreign buyer share | approx. 58% | approx. 55% | approx. 45% | approx. 50% |
| Oversupply risk | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Low |
Pricing data as of Q1 2026. Sources: Land Office transaction registers, developer monitoring, Tajlandia.com team estimates.
Risks and mistakes
Currency exposure. Buyers whose home currency is not the Thai baht purchase in a foreign currency but receive rental income in baht. Based on THB volatility observed over the 24 months to Q1 2026, exchange-rate movement alone can shift the real annual return by 1-2 percentage points in either direction relative to the nominal THB yield.
Oversupply risk in Bang Tao. This district carries the heaviest 2026 completion pipeline. We monitor its absorption rate every quarter. Buyers should verify the pre-sales ratio of any specific project - those with less than 50% pre-sold prior to completion may signal developer liquidity strain and create secondary-market price pressure post-handover.
Gross versus net yield confusion. In all our data sets, we report net yields - that is, after deducting property management fees (typically 15-25% of rental revenue), common-area charges, local property tax, and insurance. The gap between gross and net figures routinely reaches 2.5-4 percentage points, which substantially changes the investment case.
Foreign quota limit. Thai condominium law caps foreign freehold ownership at 49% of total floor area per building. Once that quota is exhausted, freehold acquisition by a foreign national is not possible. We verify quota availability before issuing any location brief.
Seasonality miscalculation. Phuket's high season runs from November through March. During the low season (May to October), occupancy typically falls to 35-50%, materially reducing full-year revenue. A yield calculation based solely on high-season data overstates annual returns by an estimated 30-40%.
FAQ
What is the average price per square metre for a condominium in Phuket in 2026?
The coastal-zone average stands at approximately 142,000 THB/sq m as of Q1 2026, based on our analysis of Land Office records and developer price lists. In premium districts such as Surin and Kamala, prices frequently exceed 165,000 THB/sq m.
What net rental yield can a buyer realistically expect in Phuket?
Based on our estimates, professionally managed condominiums are generating 5.2-6.8% net per annum in 2026. The upper end of that range applies to Kamala and Surin; Karon and Rawai sit closer to the lower bound. These figures account for management fees, common-area costs, local tax and insurance.
Can a foreign national buy a condominium in Phuket under freehold title?
Yes, provided the building's foreign quota - capped at 49% of total floor area under Thai law - has not been exhausted. Purchase funds must be remitted from abroad and documented with a Foreign Exchange Transaction (FET) certificate, formerly known as a TT3 form, issued by a Thai bank.
How does Thai baht volatility affect returns for foreign investors?
The baht has traded within a relatively contained range over the 2024-2026 period, but movements of 8-10% within a calendar year are not unusual. Our analysts factor this into every quarterly report and note that exchange-rate shifts can add or subtract roughly 1-2 percentage points from the effective annual return in the buyer's home currency.
How many new condominium units are being delivered in Phuket in 2026?
Per our estimates, approximately 4,200 units are scheduled for handover in 2026 - the highest annual volume since 2019. Over 40% of that supply is concentrated in Bang Tao and Layan, which is the primary driver of moderate oversupply risk in those sub-markets.
What are the ongoing ownership costs for a condominium in Phuket?
Common-area maintenance fees typically range from 40 to 80 THB/sq m per month, depending on the project's specification and facilities. Buyers also pay a one-time sinking fund contribution at handover (roughly 500-800 THB/sq m), annual property tax, and building insurance.
Is property in Koh Samui cheaper than in Phuket?
On a per-square-metre basis, yes. The average condominium price in Bophut and Maenam on Koh Samui is approximately 125,000 THB/sq m - around 12% below the Phuket coastal average. However, total supply on Koh Samui is considerably smaller, which limits selection and makes like-for-like comparisons less straightforward.
How do airport arrival statistics relate to rental performance?
We treat HKT passenger data as a leading indicator for short-term rental occupancy, with a lag of one to two quarters. The 6% year-on-year increase in arrivals recorded in Q1 2026 correlates with the 78% high-season occupancy we observed in Kamala and Surin in our Q1 2026 data set.
Which Phuket districts carry the highest oversupply risk in 2026?
Bang Tao and Layan together account for approximately 1,800 new units scheduled for 2026 handover, making them the districts most exposed to absorption risk. Surin and Kamala face lower new supply volumes and show more stable demand in our tracking data.
Researching property in Phuket or Koh Samui? Get in touch - our analysts will prepare a data brief for your shortlisted location.