In Q1 2026, the average asking price for freehold condominiums on Phuket rose 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 128,000 THB per sq m across the island. Our analysts track this figure on a rolling quarterly basis, and the data reveal a clear polarisation: western-coast districts (Bang Tao, Layan, Surin) are appreciating faster than the eastern side of the island, while foreign-buyer demand remains above pre-pandemic levels.
Koh Samui is moving at a different pace. Based on our datasets, villa prices in Bophut and Maenam rose 5.1% year-on-year, while the affordable segment in Lamai and Chaweng is broadly flat. The divergence reflects a structural difference in buyer profiles: Samui attracts more owner-occupiers and long-stay residents, whereas western Phuket continues to draw yield-oriented investors focused on short-term rentals.
Below we present seven market indicators we monitor every quarter. Each is anchored to a specific source and time window; estimates are labelled as such.
Quick answer
- Average freehold condo asking price on Phuket (Q1 2026): 128,000 THB/sq m, up 8.3% year-on-year
- New-supply pipeline on the west coast (Bang Tao, Layan, Kamala): approximately 2,400 units targeted for completion by end-2026, per developer disclosures
- Foreign-buyer share (Phuket Land Office registries, H2 2025): overseas nationals accounted for 38% of condominium transactions in Phuket province
- International arrivals at HKT (AOT data, January-March 2026): 3.87 million international passengers, up 11% year-on-year
- Short-term rental occupancy on the west coast (high season, December 2025-March 2026): 79% on average, based on our estimates derived from booking-platform data
- THB exchange rate (end of March 2026): the Thai baht weakened approximately 2.4% against major European currencies over the preceding 12 months, a useful reference point for foreign buyers calculating acquisition costs
- Bank of Thailand policy rate (March 2026): 2.00%, following a 25 basis-point cut in February 2026
Options and scenarios
Scenario A: continued steady appreciation
If international arrivals at HKT maintain growth above 10% year-on-year and annual new completions stay below 3,000 units, we monitor a reasonable probability of asking-price growth in the 6-9% per year range continuing through 2026-2027. In this scenario, high-season occupancy holds above 70%, and gross rental yields in western districts oscillate around 5.5-7.0% annually.
Scenario B: supply-side pressure
A notable caution signal appears in our data: developers have announced 14 new projects in Bang Tao and Layan alone over the past 12 months (as of March 2026). If all complete on schedule by 2027-2028, available stock in those two districts would increase by roughly 35%. Under this scenario, prices in the sub-5 million THB segment could stabilise or contract by 3-5%, while the luxury tier (above 15 million THB) is likely to prove more resilient given constrained land supply.
Scenario C: currency or geopolitical shock
For buyers whose home currency is not the US dollar, the THB exchange rate is the second most important variable after the property price itself. If the baht appreciates 10% against major currencies, the real value of existing holdings rises in local-currency terms, but entry costs increase for new buyers. Conversely, further baht weakness creates a 'currency discount' for foreign acquirers. We track this spread every quarter and flag significant moves in our reports.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Phuket West (Bang Tao, Layan, Surin) | Phuket South (Rawai, Nai Harn, Karon) | Koh Samui (Bophut, Maenam) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average condo price (THB/sq m, Q1 2026) | 135,000 - 165,000 | 95,000 - 125,000 | 90,000 - 120,000 |
| Year-on-year price change | +9.1% | +6.7% | +5.1% |
| Rental occupancy (high season) | 79% | 72% | 68% |
| Estimated gross yield (short-term rental) | 5.5 - 7.0% | 6.0 - 8.0% | 5.0 - 6.5% |
| New-unit pipeline to end-2027 | approx. 2,400 | approx. 1,100 | approx. 600 |
| Dominant buyer profile | Foreign investor (Russia, China, Europe) | Mixed: investor and resident | Resident, digital nomad |
| Travel time from airport | 25-40 min (HKT) | 40-55 min (HKT) | 10-30 min (USM) |
Price data are drawn from our analysis of active listings and closed transactions recorded at provincial Land Offices. Occupancy figures are based on our estimates using booking-platform aggregates and property-management operator reports.
Risks and mistakes
1. Ignoring the supply pipeline. Many buyers focus exclusively on historical price trends. In Bang Tao, however, we are monitoring a wave of new project announcements that could shift the demand-supply balance within 18-24 months. We cross-check pipeline data against EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment) registries every quarter.
2. Calculating yield from peak-season occupancy only. The 79% high-season occupancy figure (December-March) drops to 40-50% during the low season (May-October) on Phuket's west coast. Any yield projection should be built on at least a full 12-month data series, not a single seasonal peak.
3. Underestimating currency exposure. The THB has historically traded across a meaningful range against major currencies. On a 5 million THB purchase, even a modest exchange-rate movement produces a material difference in effective cost when converted to the buyer's home currency. Buyers without a hedging strategy are carrying a real, unpriced risk.
4. Treating 'guaranteed yield' at face value. We regularly review offers advertising guaranteed returns of 7-10% per year. In the majority of cases, the guarantee is effectively priced into the acquisition cost, meaning the buyer pre-funds it. We document these structures in every relevant report.
5. Insufficient title due diligence. On Phuket, approximately 12% of land parcels carry a Chanote title (full freehold ownership); the remainder hold Nor Sor 3, Nor Sor 3 Gor, or other forms. For condominium freehold purchases this matters less directly (building ownership is registered separately), but for villa acquisitions on leasehold land the underlying title type is critical and must be verified before any contract is signed.
FAQ
What are current property prices in Phuket in 2026?
The average freehold condominium asking price on Phuket stands at approximately 128,000 THB per sq m as of Q1 2026. In western districts such as Bang Tao, Layan, and Surin, rates reach 135,000-165,000 THB/sq m. In southern areas including Rawai and Karon, prices start from around 95,000 THB/sq m.
What is the short-term rental occupancy rate in Phuket?
During the high season (December 2025-March 2026), short-term rental occupancy on the west coast averaged 79% based on our estimates. This falls to 40-50% in the low season. We estimate annualised occupancy of 58-65% for well-managed units in Bang Tao and Kamala.
What gross rental yield can investors expect in Phuket?
Estimated gross yields from short-term rentals in western Phuket districts range from 5.5% to 7.0% per year. In the south of the island, lower purchase prices support yields of 6.0-8.0%. These are pre-cost figures; after management fees (typically 20-30% of revenue), common-area charges, rental tax, and furnishing depreciation, net returns are materially lower.
Can foreign nationals buy property in Phuket?
Yes. Under Thai condominium law, foreign nationals may acquire freehold condominium units provided the foreign ownership quota in a given building does not exceed 49% of total floor area. Villas are typically acquired via leasehold structures (commonly 30-year terms with renewal options) with building ownership, or through corporate vehicle arrangements.
How does the Koh Samui market compare with Phuket?
Koh Samui is a smaller and less liquid market. Villa prices in Bophut and Maenam are rising more slowly (+5.1% year-on-year) than condominiums in western Phuket (+9.1%). The new-supply pipeline stands at approximately 600 units to end-2027, compared with roughly 3,500 across all of Phuket. High-season rental occupancy on Samui reaches approximately 68%.
How do international arrivals affect Phuket rental demand?
Based on data we have tracked since 2022, a 10% year-on-year increase in international arrivals at HKT translates with a lag of roughly 2-3 months into a 4-6 percentage-point rise in short-term rental occupancy in western districts. We treat HKT arrival data as a leading indicator for the rental market. With 3.87 million international passengers recorded in Q1 2026, we estimate transitional-season occupancy (April-May 2026) will hold at 55-60% in Bang Tao and Kamala.
What taxes apply when buying property in Thailand?
On new-build condominium purchases, the buyer typically covers a transfer fee of 2% of the appraised value and a stamp duty of 0.5%. On resale transactions, the seller bears income withholding tax and potentially a Specific Business Tax of 3.3%. The exact cost split depends on the terms negotiated with the developer or vendor.
What is the net yield after costs for a typical Bang Tao condominium?
Based on our estimates, the effective net return after management fees (20-25% of revenue), common-area charges (40-80 THB/sq m per month), rental tax, and furnishing depreciation runs at approximately 3.5-4.5% per year for a typical condominium unit in Bang Tao. The gap between the gross yield headline (6-7%) and this net figure is frequently absent from developer marketing materials.
How does the Koh Samui airport affect property demand on Samui?
Koh Samui airport (USM) is privately operated by Bangkok Airways and handled approximately 420,000 passengers in Q1 2026, of whom around 38% were foreign nationals. The smaller traffic volume supports a higher share of medium-term rentals (1-6 months) and produces lower seasonal occupancy swings compared with Phuket, which suits a different investor profile.
What is the outlook for western Phuket property prices in the remainder of 2026?
The next quarter will be a key test of whether supply pressure in Bang Tao and Layan begins to moderate price growth. We are actively monitoring Land Office completion registries and sales-velocity data across new projects. Our updated assessment will be published in the Q2 2026 report.
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