The announced opening of Rixos Water World Phuket (600-plus rooms, targeted for early 2028) and the Club Med project on Koh Samui introduce a variable that has not previously existed at scale in the Thai residential property market: a large all-inclusive resort operating in direct proximity to privately owned condominiums and villas available for short-term rental. Our analysts have been monitoring this segment since the conversion of the former Splash Jungle site in Mai Khao was first announced. The analysis below examines how these developments alter the yield calculation for income-focused investors.
According to C9 Hotelworks data from September 2026, Rixos Water World Phuket is being developed as a joint venture between Ennismore and Central Group Capital. The property will feature five food-and-beverage outlets, an integrated waterpark, and a full all-inclusive format that keeps guests on-site throughout their stay. The Club Med project on Koh Samui is at an earlier planning stage, but it confirms the same broader trend: a shift away from room-only accommodation toward bundled packages covering meals, entertainment, and activities at a single price point.
For a condominium owner within five to ten kilometres of either resort, two opposing forces are now at play. The first is absorption: all-inclusive resorts draw family travellers and package tourists who would previously have booked private villas or apartments. The second is a halo effect: the resort raises the profile of the surrounding area, drives footfall, and can push daily rates upward in the premium segment that all-inclusive formats do not reach, specifically private pool villas accommodating six to eight guests.
Quick answer
- Rixos Water World Phuket will add over 600 all-inclusive rooms in Mai Khao; opening is scheduled for early 2028, per C9 Hotelworks (September 2026)
- Club Med is planning a resort on Koh Samui, which will increase the supply of organised, bundled leisure on the island
- Based on our estimates, all-inclusive resorts primarily absorb the family and package-tour segment, which accounted for roughly 15-25% of short-term private rental demand in the Mai Khao zone
- At the same time, rising tourist traffic in the Mai Khao corridor may push daily rates for premium villas up by 8-15% over two to three years from opening
- On Koh Samui, the Club Med effect will be stronger in Chaweng and Lamai than in Maenam or Bophut, where monthly rentals dominate
- In September 2026, Sansiri announced two new condominium projects on Phuket with a combined value exceeding 3 billion THB and projected gross yields of 9-11% per year, signalling that major developers view incoming resorts as a demand driver rather than a threat
Options and scenarios
Scenario A: Condominium in Mai Khao, within 5 km of the Rixos site
We model a unit valued at 6 million THB (approximately 720,000 PLN at the September 2026 rate of 0.12 PLN per THB). A third-party property management operator charges 25-30% of gross revenue. The high season (November through March) supports a daily rate of 3,500-4,500 THB; the low season (May through October) drops to 1,800-2,500 THB.
Full annual income statement (our estimates, modelled data):
- Gross revenue: 150 nights x 3,800 THB (weighted average) = 570,000 THB
- Operator commission (28%): -159,600 THB
- OTA platform fees (Booking.com, Airbnb, roughly 3-5% net): -20,000 THB
- Cleaning, laundry, minor repairs: -45,000 THB
- Utilities (electricity, water, internet): -30,000 THB
- Common area maintenance fee (CAM): -36,000 THB
- Owner net income: 279,400 THB (approximately 33,500 PLN)
- Net yield: 4.7%
Following the Rixos opening, we anticipate a 10-20% decline in occupancy within the family segment in the five-kilometre radius. For a standard one-bedroom condominium, the net effect is likely negative: we estimate the yield will compress to 3.8-4.2% in the opening year, with a potential recovery to 4.5-5.0% over two to three years as overall tourist volume in the Mai Khao corridor increases.
Scenario B: Villa on Koh Samui, Chaweng or Lamai area
Club Med targets the organised leisure segment, which accounts for a larger proportion of total demand on Koh Samui than on Phuket. Our on-the-ground verification shows that two- to three-bedroom villas in Chaweng generate 4,000-6,000 THB per night during high season, but annual occupancy rarely exceeds 120-140 nights. Following Club Med's entry, we expect a portion of package guests to shift away from private rentals, potentially reducing occupancy by a further 15-25 nights per year for properties closest to the resort.
A more resilient alternative is the Maenam and Bophut zone, where monthly rentals of 30-plus days dominate. This segment is structurally insulated from all-inclusive competition because it serves an entirely different guest profile: digital nomads, retirees, and long-stay residents.
Scenario C: Monthly rental as a defensive positioning strategy
For investors who want to avoid direct competition with all-inclusive resorts, the monthly rental model offers more stable - if lower - income. A typical one-bedroom condominium in Maenam achieves 25,000-35,000 THB per month in high season and 18,000-22,000 THB in low season. At ten months of occupancy per year (a realistic assumption), gross annual revenue reaches roughly 250,000-300,000 THB. Operating costs are materially lower than for short-term lets: no guest rotation, no OTA commissions, and minimal housekeeping overhead.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Short-term rental - Mai Khao (near Rixos) | Short-term rental - Koh Samui (near Club Med) | Monthly rental - Maenam / Bophut | Developer rental pool - new project |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Typical rate | 3,500-4,500 THB/night (high season) | 4,000-6,000 THB/night (high season) | 25,000-35,000 THB/month | Set by operator |
| Annual occupancy (estimate) | 130-160 nights | 120-140 nights | 10-11 months | 140-170 nights |
| Operator commission | 25-30% of gross revenue | 25-35% of gross revenue | 8-15% or flat fee | 40-50% of gross revenue |
| All-inclusive resort impact | Medium - family segment occupancy falls | High - Koh Samui more dependent on package demand | Minimal | Depends on brand and project location |
| Estimated net yield | 3.8-5.0% | 3.5-5.5% | 4.0-5.5% | 5-7% declared; 3-5% realistic after costs |
| Short-term rental legal risk | Hotel licence required at building level | Hotel licence required at building level | Legal above 30 days | Licence held by developer |
| Annual costs (CAM, utilities, repairs) | 80,000-120,000 THB | 70,000-110,000 THB | 40,000-60,000 THB | Included in operator commission |
Risks and mistakes
Hotel licence compliance is a hard constraint. Under the Thai Hotel Act (B.E. 2547), short-term rentals of under 30 days require the building to hold a hotel licence. Not every condominium qualifies. An investor planning short-term lets near the Rixos site in Mai Khao must confirm whether the specific project holds this licence or whether the developer has secured one. Buildings without a hotel licence can legally offer only rentals of 30 days or longer. Where monthly rental is the only legal option, the competitive impact of an all-inclusive resort is minimal.
On Koh Samui, enforcement has historically been less stringent than in Phuket, but the regulatory direction is toward tighter oversight. Based on our observations through 2026, the Surat Thani Provincial Authority (which has jurisdiction over Koh Samui) has increased the frequency of inspections targeting properties listed on OTA platforms.
Overstating occupancy. Many investors model 200-plus nights per year. The realistic range in Mai Khao is 130-160 nights, and we expect downward pressure following the Rixos opening, particularly in the family and group-travel segment.
Comparing gross with net. Declared yields of 9-11% are gross figures. After operator commissions, OTA fees, CAM charges, utilities, and applicable taxes, realistic net returns are in the 3-5% range. We flag this consistently in our data sets.
Underestimating low-season severity. Low-season occupancy in Chaweng and Lamai on Koh Samui can fall below 30% due to monsoon conditions and reduced flight frequency. All-inclusive resorts have a structural advantage in low season because they can offer discounted packages that private owners cannot match at scale. We estimate the occupancy gap between high and low season in Mai Khao will widen by an additional 5-10 percentage points for private units after the Rixos opening.
No exit strategy from short-term to monthly rental. Investors buying solely for short-term rental in the immediate vicinity of a new all-inclusive should prepare a concrete plan for transitioning to monthly lets if occupancy deteriorates. The two strategies require different unit configurations and marketing approaches.
Currency risk. Income is denominated in THB while tax obligations (for many investors) arise in a home currency. THB exchange-rate fluctuations ran at 8-12% annually over the 2025-2026 period based on our tracking, representing a meaningful additional variable in the yield calculation.
Developer guaranteed-return schemes. Offers of 6-7% per year for three to five years typically embed a 10-20% price premium over market value, restrict personal use of the unit, and carry counterparty risk once the guarantee period ends. We treat these figures as marketing parameters, not investment returns.
FAQ
Will the Rixos opening in Mai Khao push down rental rates in the surrounding area?
Not necessarily across all segments. Based on our estimates, daily rates for standard one-bedroom condominiums may soften by 5-10%, but the premium villa segment (three-plus bedrooms with a private pool) may benefit from the area's rising profile. Occupancy compression is the more significant risk, not a broad fall in rates.
When is Rixos Water World Phuket scheduled to open?
According to C9 Hotelworks data from September 2026, the opening is planned for early 2028. The resort is being built on the site of the former Splash Jungle waterpark in Mai Khao and will offer more than 600 rooms.
Will the Club Med project on Koh Samui affect rental demand in Maenam?
In our assessment, the impact on Maenam and Bophut will be minimal. Those areas primarily serve monthly renters (30-plus day stays) who are not the target demographic for an all-inclusive resort. Operators in Chaweng and Lamai face more direct competitive pressure.
What does third-party property management typically cost on Phuket?
A standard operator commission on Phuket runs at 25-30% of gross revenue. Added to that are OTA platform fees (3-5%), cleaning and laundry costs, utility bills, and CAM charges. In aggregate, operating costs consume 45-55% of gross revenue in most of our modelled scenarios.
Can a foreign investor legally rent out a condominium unit on a nightly basis in Thailand?
Only if the building holds a hotel licence under the Thai Hotel Act. Rentals of under 30 days without that licence are illegal and carry fines of up to 20,000 THB plus a potential cease-and-desist order. Licence status must be verified with the developer or the relevant provincial office before purchase.
What is the realistic net rental yield on a Phuket condominium in 2026?
Based on our estimates, realistic net yields (after all operating costs) sit at 3-5% for standard condominiums and 4-6% for premium villas. Gross figures of 9-11% quoted by developers require careful line-by-line verification of what costs are excluded.
Does proximity to a new all-inclusive resort make a property more or less attractive?
It depends entirely on the property type and distance. Premium pool villas can benefit from the halo effect on destination awareness. Standard one-bedroom condominiums in the family-market segment face occupancy risk. We recommend a project-specific analysis rather than a blanket view.
How does seasonality in Mai Khao compare with Bang Tao or Layan?
Bang Tao and Layan achieve higher year-round occupancy (60-70%) than Mai Khao (55-65%), supported by denser restaurant, beach club, and entertainment infrastructure. After the Rixos opening, we expect that gap to widen modestly as the resort absorbs a portion of Mai Khao's seasonal demand.
Which new condominium projects launched on Phuket in 2026?
In September 2026, Sansiri announced two projects: THE BASE Midtown-Phuket (valued at 1.1 billion THB) and CANVAZ Palette Cherngtalay (1.9 billion THB), with entry prices from 2.79 million THB per unit and declared gross yields of 9-11%. We treat those yield figures as gross benchmarks and estimate realistic net returns at 3-5% after costs.
How is rental income from a Thai property taxed?
Rental income generated in Thailand is subject to Thai personal income tax at progressive rates up to 35%. Thailand maintains a double-taxation agreement with many countries, which generally allows tax paid in Thailand to be credited against tax obligations in the investor's home jurisdiction. We recommend obtaining qualified tax advice specific to your residency situation before committing to a purchase.
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