In October 2026, analysts at CGSI revised their presales forecast for Thailand's nine largest listed developers downward by 3.4%, to 192.1 billion baht. Third-quarter 2026 presales came in at 46.2 billion baht, a 12.2% year-on-year decline. For foreign buyers evaluating off-plan condominiums in Phuket or Koh Samui, this is not an abstract macro signal. It reflects a measurable shift in the balance of power between buyer and developer, and it calls for a concrete adjustment in purchase strategy.
Our analysts have tracked presales data as a standard risk-assessment input for off-plan purchases over several years. The current revision matters not because it is dramatic (3.4% is a moderate downgrade) but because it coincides with several negative signals at once: weakening consumer confidence, elevated household debt, and a rising business closure rate. Taken together, these factors create an environment in which the foreign investor holds stronger negotiating leverage than at any point in the past twelve months.
Quick answer
- 2026 presales forecast revised by CGSI to 192.1 billion THB, down 3.4% from the prior estimate
- Nine-month 2026 presales reached 138.4 billion THB, just 72% of the full-year target, down 7.2% year-on-year
- Condominium segment posted a presales decline of 2.1%; the low-rise segment fell 10.4%
- Consumer confidence index stood at 49.5 in August 2026 (below the neutral threshold of 50), per data cited by The Star
- Household debt remains near 85.9% of GDP, constraining domestic demand
- Business closures rose 35.2% year-on-year (2,244 in August 2026 alone), signalling elevated counterparty risk across the construction supply chain
- Forecasts for AP, LPN, and SIRI were left unchanged, setting these three developers apart from the rest of the sector
Options and scenarios
Scenario A: Buy off-plan now and negotiate on price
Falling presales means developers whose forecasts have been cut (LH, PSH, QH, SPALI, ORI, and SC, with individual downgrades ranging from 1.3% to 17.5%) have clear motivation to improve deal terms. In our quarterly tracking data we observe that, during periods of softer demand, developers in Phuket districts carrying large pipeline supply - Bang Tao and Kamala in particular - become willing to negotiate discounts of 5-10% off the list price, or to extend fit-out and furniture packages. For buyers holding a euro-denominated budget, the current THB exchange rate remains comparatively favourable given Thailand's current-account dynamics.
The risk in this scenario lies in choosing a developer from the downgraded group that may then struggle to deliver on schedule. Flooding across the Greater Bangkok area in Q3 2026 has already caused launch delays for several new project phases, and that disruption is still working through the supply chain.
Scenario B: Wait for Q4 2026 data before committing
If the downward trend continues into Q4, full-year 2027 forecasts could be revised further still. With sector dividend yields running at 7.0-7.6% (CGSI data) and a 2027 price-to-earnings multiple of 7.7x (one standard deviation below the five-year average), listed Thai developers are already priced by the market as a sector under pressure. This suggests purchase conditions could improve further by early 2027.
On Koh Samui, where the market is smaller and more directly tied to tourism volumes, waiting may be especially justified. Based on our estimates, average selling timelines for off-plan units in the Bophut and Maenam districts have extended from 4-6 months to 8-12 months compared with the same period in 2025, pointing to reduced urgency on the buyer side.
Scenario C: Filter by developers with unchanged forecasts
CGSI left forecasts untouched for three companies: AP, LPN, and SIRI. AP and SIRI stand out for their strong backlogs (the value of contracted but not yet completed projects), which translates into lower delivery risk and greater financial stability. For a buyer purchasing an off-plan condominium in Phuket, a developer appearing on the unchanged-forecast list is a concrete quality signal.
In our assessment process we check whether the developer behind a specific project in Rawai, Nai Harn, or Surin falls into the downgraded or the stable group. This single filter materially changes the risk profile of any off-plan commitment.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Scenario A: Buy now with discount | Scenario B: Wait for Q4 data | Scenario C: Select stable developers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Potential discount | 5-10% off list price | 8-15% (per market estimates, Q1 2027) | 0-3% (developer negotiating from strength) |
| Delivery delay risk | Elevated (forecast downgrades) | Moderate (more data available) | Low (strong AP, SIRI backlogs) |
| Unit availability | High (supply-side pressure) | High, though prime units may clear | Limited (popular schemes fill faster) |
| Buyer negotiating power | Strong | Very strong | Moderate |
| THB exchange-rate risk | Current rate applies | Unknown (3-6 month volatility window) | Current rate applies |
| Phuket district focus | Bang Tao, Kamala (large pipeline) | Karon, Kata (smaller resale market) | Rawai, Surin (AP, SIRI projects) |
| Koh Samui district focus | Chaweng (near-term oversupply) | Bophut, Maenam (extended sales cycles) | Lamai (limited new supply) |
Risks and mistakes
Risk 1: Treating the presales revision as a sector crisis. A 3.4% downgrade is a correction, not a collapse. The Thai market absorbed far steeper declines in 2020-2021 and recovered. Buyers who interpret current data as justification for 'minus 30%' opening offers will be turned away by developers who still have adequate cash reserves and backlog coverage.
Risk 2: Overlooking the household debt context. A debt-to-GDP ratio of 85.9% means domestic demand may stay subdued for several quarters. For the foreign buyer this reduces competition from Thai purchasers, but it also limits the pool of local tenants. On Phuket and Koh Samui, where rental demand is driven primarily by international tourism rather than the domestic workforce, this risk is considerably lower than in Bangkok.
Risk 3: Business closures and the subcontractor chain. The 35.2% year-on-year rise in business closures recorded in August 2026 (per data cited by The Star) can ripple into construction subcontractor networks. Our on-the-ground monitoring in Phuket has identified isolated cases of build-progress delays linked to subcontractor financial difficulties, though as of Q3 2026 the issue is concentrated in smaller peripheral-district projects rather than in major schemes in Bang Tao or Kamala.
Risk 4: Southern Thailand consumer confidence at 49.9. Phuket falls within Thailand's Southern region, where the consumer confidence index registered 49.9 in August 2026 - just below the neutral threshold. While demand for Phuket condominiums is generated primarily by foreign buyers and high-income Bangkok Thais, local sentiment does influence the pace of infrastructure investment and the cost of on-island services.
Common mistake: Ignoring presales data when buying off-plan. A significant share of foreign buyers base purchase decisions on renders and marketing brochures without reviewing a developer's presales track record. CGSI data are publicly available and, in our view, should be a standard line item in any off-plan due-diligence checklist in Thailand.
FAQ
What does a 3.4% presales forecast cut mean for the Phuket condo market?
The revision to 192.1 billion THB signals sector-wide demand softening. In Phuket it translates into greater developer willingness to negotiate on price and payment terms, particularly in high-supply districts such as Bang Tao and Kamala.
Why did Q3 2026 presales fall 12.2% year-on-year?
The primary factors were Greater Bangkok flooding (which pushed back new-phase launches) and weakening demand from both domestic buyers (consumer confidence index at 49.5) and foreign purchasers. The condo segment fell 2.1%; low-rise fell 10.4%.
Which Thai developers kept their 2026 forecasts unchanged?
According to CGSI, AP, LPN, and SIRI all retained their full-year targets. AP and SIRI carry strong contracted backlogs, which reduces financial delivery risk for off-plan buyers.
How does Thailand's household debt at 85.9% of GDP affect the property market?
High debt constrains mortgage access for Thai buyers and depresses domestic demand. For foreign investors in Phuket or Koh Samui the effect is indirect: less competition from domestic buyers, but no direct impact on the international tourism-driven rental income that underpins yields in those markets.
Should the 35.2% rise in business closures concern a Phuket buyer?
It is a sector-wide signal worth monitoring. Based on our on-the-ground observations, the impact in Phuket is so far limited to smaller projects in peripheral districts. Choosing a developer with a strong backlog (AP, SIRI) substantially reduces exposure to subcontractor-chain risk.
How should presales data factor into an off-plan assessment on Koh Samui?
Presales figures help gauge a developer's financial health and the probability of on-time delivery. On Koh Samui, where the market is smaller, we additionally track unit absorption rates at the project level. In 2026, sales cycles in Bophut and Maenam have extended to 8-12 months, a useful benchmark when evaluating developer urgency.
Does weaker developer sales mean lower asking prices in Phuket?
Not necessarily. List prices on Phuket's primary market have remained broadly stable through 2026. However, based on our estimates, negotiated discounts have widened from 2-3% to 5-10% in projects with elevated pipeline exposure. This is increased pricing flexibility, not a structural price decline.
When will the next presales forecast update be published?
CGSI updates its estimates quarterly. Data covering Q4 2026 should become available between late January and early February 2027, and will indicate whether the downward trend deepens or whether the high season provided enough recovery to stabilise full-year numbers.
Are off-plan condos in Bang Tao or Kamala more exposed to the current downturn?
Both districts carry larger development pipelines than smaller Phuket zones, which increases competition among developers and gives buyers more negotiating room. The trade-off is that projects in high-pipeline areas also concentrate subcontractor risk if closures continue rising.
What is the practical first step for a foreign buyer using this data?
Verify whether the developer behind any shortlisted project belongs to the downgraded or unchanged-forecast group. That single filter, combined with a review of the project's current sales absorption rate, forms the baseline of a sound off-plan due-diligence process in the current market.
A 3.4% presales cut is a tactical signal, not a reason for alarm. In our quarterly briefings we recommend three concrete steps for foreign investors: first, prioritise developers with unchanged forecasts (AP, LPN, SIRI) as an initial due-diligence filter. Second, negotiate actively on price and payment schedules in high-pipeline districts - Bang Tao and Kamala in Phuket, Chaweng in Koh Samui. Third, incorporate presales metrics into the standard risk dashboard alongside arrival statistics, rental occupancy rates, and the THB exchange rate. The market has shifted in favour of the buyer. Applying analytical discipline is the way to take advantage of that shift.
Researching property in Phuket or Koh Samui? Get in touch - our analysts will prepare a data brief for your shortlisted location.