In the first half of 2026, foreign nationals completed transfers on 6,533 condominium units across Thailand, with a combined value of 28.27 billion THB. Transaction volume dipped slightly compared with the same period in 2025, yet total value held steady - which means one thing: the average price per transferred unit increased. We track these figures on a quarterly basis, and we read this as a structural signal rather than a one-off deviation.
For the full year 2025, foreign buyers transferred 14,899 units worth 60.9 billion THB, based on transfer-registry data reviewed by our analysts in October 2026. Placing these two periods side by side gives any internationally minded investor a concrete takeaway: foreign demand is sustaining condo market values even as domestic Thai demand softens under high household debt and GDP growth estimated at roughly 2.3% on a five-year average (per macro estimates published in October 2026).
Quick answer
- In full-year 2025, foreign buyers transferred 14,899 condo units valued at 60.9 billion THB across Thailand
- In H1 2026, 6,533 units were transferred for 28.27 billion THB - lower volume, higher average price per unit
- Chinese buyers account for roughly one-third of foreign transfers in 2025 (approximately 4,940 units); Russian buyers rank second, with a +50.4% year-on-year surge in H1 2026
- Geographic concentration of foreign demand: Bangkok absorbs ~50%, Chonburi/Pattaya over 25%, while Phuket and Koh Samui remain niche markets by transaction volume
- The foreign ownership quota sits at 49% of total usable floor area per project - measured in square metres, not unit count
- Weak domestic demand (household debt, softer tourism receipts) means foreign capital is acting as a value buffer in the condo segment
Options and scenarios
We assess three forward-looking scenarios for the Thai condo market as of 2026, with particular relevance for investors evaluating Phuket and Koh Samui.
Scenario A: continuation of the current trend (base case)
Foreign demand holds near 2025 levels. Average price per unit rises 3-5% annually, driven by a gradual shift toward higher-priced stock. In Phuket - particularly in Bang Tao, Layan, and Kamala - new launches are entering the market priced 8-12% above comparable 2024 completions. Koh Samui (Bophut, Chaweng) remains a niche market with a limited pipeline of new units, which stabilises prices but constrains secondary-market liquidity.
Scenario B: accelerating Russian and Middle Eastern demand
The momentum in Russian purchases (+50.4% year-on-year in H1 2026) continues to build. Under this scenario, Phuket benefits disproportionately relative to Bangkok, because Russian buyers have historically concentrated in leisure-oriented districts - Rawai, Nai Harn, Karon. Pressure on the 49% foreign quota in sought-after projects builds faster. Units priced below 5 million THB see the sharpest appreciation. For investors entering this market, secondary-market liquidity improves, but entry prices are correspondingly higher.
Scenario C: slowdown and correction
Further softening of Thai GDP growth (below 2%), rising interest rates, or tighter foreign-ownership regulations (for example, a reduction of the foreign quota below 49%) could push foreign transaction volume down 15-20%. In this scenario, Phuket new-completion prices may correct by 5-8% in the standard segment, while secondary-market sales in lower-liquidity locations - Maenam and Lamai on Koh Samui - could see time-on-market extend beyond 12 months.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Bangkok | Chonburi / Pattaya | Phuket | Koh Samui |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share of foreign transfers (2025) | ~50% | >25% | ~5-8% (market estimates) | <2% (our estimates) |
| Dominant buyer nationalities | China, Myanmar | China, Russia | Russia, China | Russia, Western Europe |
| Average condo price (THB/sqm, H1 2026) | 100,000 - 180,000 | 60,000 - 110,000 | 80,000 - 150,000 | 70,000 - 130,000 |
| Estimated gross rental yield | 4-5% | 5-7% | 6-8% | 5-7% |
| Secondary-market liquidity | High | Medium-high | Medium | Low |
| Risk of 49% quota being exhausted | High in core areas | High in popular projects | Medium, rising in Bang Tao | Low |
| New completion pipeline (2026-2027) | Large | Large | Medium, growing in Bang Tao | Constrained |
Risks and mistakes
Mistake 1: Overestimating Phuket's share of foreign condo volume. Transfer-registry data consistently shows Bangkok and Chonburi absorbing over 75% of all foreign condo transactions. Phuket and Koh Samui are niche markets in volume terms. That distinction matters directly for resale: thinner transaction depth means longer time-on-market when exiting a position, and any investment horizon should be modelled accordingly.
Mistake 2: Misreading how the 49% foreign quota works. The limit applies to total usable floor area of a project, not to the number of individual units. In practice, if foreign buyers are purchasing larger units, the quota is exhausted faster than the unit-count figures suggest. Based on our review of data from October 2026, buyers should obtain a written, dated confirmation of the current foreign-ownership ratio from the project's juristic person before placing any deposit.
Mistake 3: Applying Bangkok price dynamics to Phuket. The two markets are driven by different forces. Bangkok condo prices are shaped by investment demand and a domestic middle class. In Phuket, the key variables are short-term rental seasonality and the new-completion pipeline - particularly in Bang Tao and Kamala, where, based on our estimates, several hundred new units are scheduled for handover in 2026-2027, which could cap appreciation in the standard segment.
Mistake 4: Underweighting currency risk. For buyers funding purchases in a non-THB currency, the THB exchange rate introduces meaningful volatility - historically on the order of 8-12% annually against major currencies. On a 5 million THB purchase, that range of movement represents a significant cost or gain depending on transfer timing. We monitor exchange-rate trends systematically and recommend distributing transfers over time where deal structure permits.
Mistake 5: Confusing transfer data with reservation data. Transfer registries record the legal change of ownership, not the signing of a sale-and-purchase agreement or reservation. The pipeline of contracted but not-yet-transferred transactions may run 20-30% higher than published transfer figures, based on our market estimates. Investors using headline transfer numbers as a proxy for current demand are working from a lagged indicator.
FAQ
Which nationality buys the most condos in Thailand in 2026?
Chinese buyers accounted for roughly one-third of all foreign condo transfers in 2025 (approximately 4,940 units). In H1 2026, Russian buyers moved into second place, with transaction volume up 50.4% year-on-year.
How many condos did foreigners buy in Thailand in 2025?
Based on transfer-registry data, foreign nationals transferred 14,899 condominium units across Thailand in full-year 2025, with a total value of 60.9 billion THB.
Is Phuket the main condo market for foreign buyers?
No. Bangkok accounts for approximately 50% of foreign condo transfers, and Chonburi (Pattaya) for over 25%. Phuket's estimated share is around 5-8% per market estimates. That context is important when projecting secondary-market liquidity for any Phuket acquisition.
How does the 49% foreign quota affect a condo purchase?
The limit applies to total usable floor area per project, not to unit count. Before placing a deposit, buyers should obtain a written, dated confirmation of the current foreign-ownership ratio from the project's juristic person. In high-demand projects in Bang Tao or Chaweng, the quota may be close to its ceiling.
Are average condo prices in Thailand rising in 2026?
Yes. In H1 2026, transfer volume declined slightly relative to H1 2025, but total value held near 28.27 billion THB. That combination implies a higher average price per transferred unit, which we interpret as a structural shift toward more expensive stock rather than a broad-based price spike.
What is the estimated rental yield on a Phuket condo?
Based on our estimates, gross rental yields in well-located Phuket districts - Bang Tao, Kamala, Surin - run at 6-8% annually. After management fees, maintenance costs, and applicable taxes, net yields typically fall in the 4-6% range.
Does foreign demand stabilise condo prices despite weak Thai GDP growth?
Based on macroeconomic analysis from October 2026, with Thai GDP growth at roughly 2.3% and household debt elevated, foreign condo demand is functioning as a price-floor mechanism - particularly in segments and districts favoured by international buyers.
How does the new-completion pipeline affect Phuket condo prices?
In Bang Tao and Kamala, we are tracking a growing pipeline of completions scheduled for 2026-2027. New supply is exerting modest pressure on prices in the standard segment (below 5 million THB), while the premium segment (above 10 million THB) remains supply-constrained and more insulated.
Is Koh Samui a viable condo market for international investors?
Koh Samui accounts for under 2% of foreign condo transfers by our estimates, which means secondary-market liquidity is limited. On the other side, constrained new supply in Bophut and Chaweng keeps prices relatively stable. In our assessment, Koh Samui suits investors with a longer hold horizon and a higher tolerance for illiquidity.
The buyer composition and pricing data for 2026 point to one overarching observation: geographic concentration of foreign demand is a leading indicator of future secondary-market liquidity. Markets that attract consistent foreign buyer interest - and within Phuket, that means Bang Tao, Kamala, and Rawai - are the same markets where resale is structurally easier. On Koh Samui, a longer exit timeline is a baseline assumption, not a tail risk. We update these datasets quarterly and revise our analysis after each transfer-registry publication.
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