In Q1 2026, foreign buyers accounted for approximately 48% of condominium transaction value in Phuket Province - a rise of 5 percentage points against the same period in 2025, per Department of Lands registry data. Our analysts monitor these records on a quarterly basis and observe a clear acceleration in foreign purchasing activity, particularly in units priced above 5 million THB.
The primary demand drivers remain buyers from Russia, China and the Gulf states, but our 2025 data sets show a rising share from Central and Western Europe. Based on our estimates, European buyers outside the traditional Western European bloc represented a measurably larger portion of foreign transactions in 2025 compared with 2023, reflecting broader geographic diversification in the buyer pool.
For internationally mobile buyers tracking exchange rates, the THB context matters: as of early 2026, the baht has traded in a relatively contained band. The relative stability over the past four quarters reduces short-term currency friction for buyers planning purchases, though our analysts flag that over a 3-5 year investment horizon, historical THB fluctuations of +/- 15% against major currencies remain a material variable.
Quick answer
- 48% of Phuket condominium transaction value in Q1 2026 was attributed to foreign buyers, per Department of Lands data - the highest reading since 2019
- Largest foreign buyer groups by volume (end-2025): Russia approx. 28%, China approx. 19%, Gulf states approx. 12%
- Average condominium price in the foreign-active segment: 135,000-185,000 THB/m² in Bang Tao, Layan and Kamala (Q4 2025 data)
- Koh Samui records a lower foreign share of transactions (approx. 32%) but a stronger year-on-year growth rate (+9 percentage points)
- New Phuket supply pipeline for 2026: an estimated 4,200 units, with over 60% concentrated in the Cherng Talay - Bang Tao - Layan corridor
- Phuket International Airport (HKT) handled 19.4 million passengers in 2025, surpassing the 2019 pre-pandemic peak
Options and scenarios
Scenario A: continued growth in foreign demand (probability: high)
If international arrivals at HKT maintain the trajectory recorded in 2025 (+11% year-on-year), foreign demand for condominiums could add a further 3-5 percentage points of transaction share by end-2026. In our demand models, the correlation between arrival volumes and foreign purchase transactions operates with a lag of 2-3 quarters: visitors discover the market, return, and then buy. Bang Tao and Surin, which concentrate the premium segment, are positioned to absorb the largest share of that incremental demand.
For a buyer active in those markets, the practical implication is sustained upward price pressure in top western-coast locations, particularly for sea-view units. Based on our estimates, list prices in Layan rose 14% year-on-year in Q4 2025.
Scenario B: supply-side moderation (probability: moderate)
The pipeline of approximately 4,200 new units scheduled for Phuket in 2026 is a record figure. If developers deliver more than 70% of that volume in H2 2026, selected sub-markets - particularly Rawai and Karon, where the mid-market segment is concentrated - could experience a short-cycle oversupply condition. In this scenario, prices in the 60,000-90,000 THB/m² band may stabilise or correct by 3-5%.
For a buyer targeting short-term rental units in the 3-5 million THB range, this scenario opens a negotiation window that has been largely absent in recent quarters.
Scenario C: regulatory change on foreign ownership quota (probability: low but relevant)
In 2025, the Thai government revisited proposals to raise the foreign ownership ceiling in condominium buildings from the current 49% to 75% of total units. Per information tracked from the Real Estate Information Center (REIC), as of early 2026 the proposal remains in the consultation phase - no legislation has been enacted. If implemented, our modelling suggests foreign demand could increase by 15-25% within 12 months, particularly in buildings that have already reached the 49% cap.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Bang Tao / Layan (Phuket) | Kamala / Surin (Phuket) | Rawai / Nai Harn (Phuket) | Bophut / Maenam (Koh Samui) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg. condo price (THB/m², Q4 2025) | 145,000-185,000 | 130,000-170,000 | 65,000-95,000 | 85,000-130,000 |
| Foreign share of transactions | approx. 55% | approx. 50% | approx. 35% | approx. 30% |
| Dominant buyer nationalities | Russia, Western Europe | Russia, China | Russia, Central Europe | Western Europe, Australia |
| 2026 supply pipeline (est. units) | approx. 1,800 | approx. 900 | approx. 700 | approx. 350 |
| Short-term rental occupancy (2025 annual avg.) | 72% | 68% | 58% | 54% |
| Est. gross rental yield (short-term) | 5.5-7.0% | 5.0-6.5% | 6.0-8.0% | 5.0-7.0% |
| Price growth YoY (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2025) | +14% | +11% | +6% | +9% |
Risks and mistakes
The 49% foreign ownership cap per building. The most common oversight we verify on the ground: buyers failing to check how much of the foreign quota in a specific condominium building has already been allocated. Once the 49% threshold is exhausted, freehold title purchase by a foreign national is no longer possible. The remaining option is leasehold (a 30-year term with renewal options), which, based on our estimates, discounts resale value by approximately 15-25% relative to comparable freehold units.
Yield overestimation based on peak-season data. Short-term rental occupancy in Phuket is heavily seasonal. During high season (December-March), occupancy rates reach 85-92% in well-located units. During low season (May-October), the same units typically run at 40-55% depending on the district. A yield calculation anchored only to high-season figures overstates the realistic annual return by 2-3 percentage points.
Developer delivery delays. In our data sets covering 2023-2025, the average delivery delay for Phuket projects was 6-9 months against the contractual schedule. On Koh Samui the figure is lower (3-5 months) but still present. Buyers should model cashflow and rental income projections accordingly.
Currency exposure over the investment horizon. While the THB has been relatively stable over the past four quarters, historical data shows fluctuations of +/- 15% against major currencies over a 3-5 year horizon - a typical hold period for investment-grade condominium purchases. This exposure is rarely hedged by international buyers and should be factored into total return calculations.
Insufficient legal due diligence. We verify on the ground that a portion of offers marketed to foreign buyers involve nominee shareholding structures - arrangements that are formally prohibited under Thai law. Buyers unfamiliar with local regulations face a material risk of transaction invalidation. Engaging independent Thai legal counsel before signing any reservation or sale agreement is not optional; it is a baseline requirement.
FAQ
What share of Phuket property transactions do foreign buyers represent in 2026?
Based on Department of Lands data, foreign buyers accounted for approximately 48% of condominium transaction value in Phuket in Q1 2026. This is the highest recorded level since 2019 and represents a 5 percentage point increase against Q1 2025.
Which nationalities are most active in the Phuket condominium market?
As of end-2025, Russian buyers led by volume at approximately 28% of total foreign transaction value, followed by Chinese buyers at approximately 19% and Gulf-state buyers at approximately 12%. European buyers outside Western Europe represent a growing but still relatively small share of the total.
What is the average price per square metre for condominiums sold to foreigners in Phuket?
In the foreign-active segment, average pricing in Q4 2025 ranged from 135,000-185,000 THB/m² in premium districts such as Bang Tao, Layan and Kamala. In Rawai and Nai Harn, entry-level units start from approximately 65,000 THB/m².
Can a foreign national hold freehold title to a condominium in Thailand?
Yes, subject to the condition that the aggregate foreign ownership in a given building does not exceed 49% of total unit area. Purchase funds must be remitted from overseas in foreign currency and documented via a TT3 (Foreign Exchange Transaction) form issued by a Thai bank.
How do Phuket airport arrival statistics relate to property market demand?
Our analysts track a consistent correlation: growth in HKT arrival volumes feeds into higher rental occupancy with a lag of 1-2 quarters, and into increased purchase transaction volumes with a lag of 2-3 quarters. HKT handled 19.4 million passengers in 2025, and we regard this as a structural support for current and near-term foreign demand.
Is foreign demand growing faster on Koh Samui than on Phuket?
In percentage-point terms, yes. The foreign share of transactions on Koh Samui rose by approximately 9 percentage points year-on-year to reach roughly 32% in 2025. In absolute transaction volume, however, Phuket remains the dominant market by a wide margin.
What gross rental yield can a foreign buyer realistically expect in Phuket in 2026?
Based on our estimates, realistic gross yields from short-term rentals range from 5.5-8.0% per annum depending on district and price segment. Rawai and Nai Harn show the highest headline yields (6.0-8.0%), though these come with lower off-season occupancy rates. Bang Tao and Layan deliver 5.5-7.0% with more stable year-round demand.
How many new condominium units will be delivered in Phuket in 2026?
We estimate the active supply pipeline at approximately 4,200 units, with more than 60% concentrated in the Cherng Talay - Bang Tao - Layan corridor. This is a record delivery volume and may create localised oversupply conditions in H2 2026, particularly in the mid-market Rawai and Karon sub-markets.
What is the status of the proposed increase to the 75% foreign ownership quota?
As of early 2026, the proposal to raise the foreign ownership ceiling in condominium buildings from 49% to 75% remains at the government consultation stage. No legislative change has been enacted. Our analysts monitor this process and will update our research notes as the situation develops.
What are the main risks specific to buying property in Phuket as a foreign national?
The four risks we flag most consistently are: (1) purchasing in a building where the 49% foreign quota is already exhausted, leaving only leasehold options; (2) yield calculations based on high-season occupancy only; (3) developer delivery delays averaging 6-9 months in our 2023-2025 data; and (4) nominee shareholding structures that carry a risk of transaction invalidation under Thai law.
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