Based on our transaction monitoring from January through March 2026, the gap between listing price and final sale price on Phuket's secondary market ranges from 7% to 18%, depending on the segment and ownership structure. On Koh Samui, that spread widens further, reaching 10-25% for leasehold villas. Below, we break these figures down by segment, walk through the holding-period arithmetic, and identify the conditions under which the market shifts in favour of the seller.
Our analysts have tracked listing exposure times and compared asking prices against recorded transaction prices since 2022. Our data sources include Land Office registration records, property portal listings, and transaction-level information from law firms handling foreign-buyer conveyancing. All figures are presented as team estimates unless an external source is cited.
Quick answer
- Foreign-quota freehold condos under USD 200k: average time on market 4-7 months, typical discount 7-12% off the listing price (as of Q1 2026)
- Premium condos above USD 300k: time on market 8-14 months, discount 10-15%
- Leasehold villas (30+30+30-year structures): time on market 10-18 months, discount 12-18% on Phuket and 15-25% on Koh Samui
- Villas held through a Thai company structure: comparable exposure times to leasehold, but a narrower buyer pool due to legal risk adds a further 2-5 percentage points to the effective discount
- Off-plan contract assignments before completion: the nominal discount can be zero (assignment at face value), but the seller typically pays a developer transfer fee of 1-3% of the contract value
- Currency exposure: per our estimates, THB movement against major foreign currencies over a three-year horizon can shift the net return by 5-8% in either direction, independent of the property transaction itself
Options and scenarios
Freehold condos under USD 200k - Phuket
In districts such as Bang Tao, Kamala, and Karon, demand for 30-50 sq m units remains relatively steady. The typical buyer is a foreign purchaser seeking a ready-to-occupy unit with rental management in place. Based on our estimates, a seller who prices realistically - meaning with a 7-10% haircut relative to comparable new-build list prices - can close within 4-6 months. Pricing more than 15% above current primary-market comparables routinely pushes exposure beyond twelve months.
Premium condos and villas above USD 300k - Surin, Layan, Nai Harn
In higher-value locations such as Surin, Layan, and Nai Harn, the qualified buyer pool is smaller. Leasehold villas priced in the THB 15-30 million range (approximately USD 400-800k) require longer marketing periods. We observe that sellers who do not adjust pricing after the first six months lose marketing momentum and ultimately accept discounts of 15-18% from the original ask.
Koh Samui - dynamics of a thinner market
The secondary market on Koh Samui is materially less liquid than Phuket's. Districts Bophut and Maenam attract the most buyer interest, but transaction volumes are several times lower than comparable Phuket districts. Villas in Lamai and Chaweng priced above USD 500k can wait 18-24 months for a buyer. In our data sets, final discounts on first listing prices in this segment reach 20-25%.
Off-plan contract assignments
Assigning a developer contract before unit completion is a separate exit path. Key constraints include: mandatory developer consent, a transfer fee (most commonly 1-3% of the contract value), and in some projects a prohibition on assignment during the first twelve months after signing. We verify assignment terms in every project we analyse, as conditions vary significantly across developers. The seller's upside depends on in-project price appreciation between payment tranches. Across Phuket projects with strong developer brands in 2024-2025, our analysts recorded average in-project appreciation of 8-15% per year, though this is not guaranteed and varied widely by project.
Holding-period arithmetic - freehold condo at THB 5 million
The following is a simplified illustration for a unit purchased at THB 5,000,000 (approximately USD 140k at Q1 2026 rates), with short-term rental generating 5.5% net per year after management and maintenance costs.
Entry costs: transfer and registration fees at purchase - approximately 1-2% of value (allocation between buyer and developer depends on negotiation), totalling roughly THB 75,000.
Exit costs (on sale): Specific Business Tax at 3.3% or stamp duty at 0.5% (SBT falls away after five years of ownership and registered residence), withholding income tax estimated at 1-3%, agent commission at 4%, and transfer fee at 2% (by convention split with the buyer, so 1% falls on the seller). Total exit cost: approximately 6-8% of the transaction price.
Three-year scenario: Net rental income: 3 x THB 275,000 = THB 825,000. Assuming a 10% discount on sale (transaction price THB 4,500,000) and exit costs of 7%, net sale proceeds are approximately THB 4,185,000. Combined return: 4,185,000 + 825,000 = THB 5,010,000. Against total capital deployed of approximately THB 5,075,000 (purchase price plus entry costs), the net result is roughly -THB 65,000, or -1.3% in total. Annualised return: approximately -0.4%, before currency effects.
Five-year scenario: Net rental income: 5 x THB 275,000 = THB 1,375,000. Sale at nominal purchase price (no capital growth, zero price discount; SBT no longer applicable after five years), net sale proceeds approximately THB 4,700,000 (exit costs around 6%). Total return: THB 6,075,000. Profit: approximately THB 1,000,000 (19.7%). Annualised: approximately 3.6%.
Ten-year scenario: Net rental income: 10 x THB 275,000 = THB 2,750,000. Sale with moderate 15% capital appreciation (transaction price THB 5,750,000), exit costs 6%, net sale proceeds approximately THB 5,405,000. Total return: THB 8,155,000. Profit: THB 3,080,000 (60.7%). Annualised: approximately 4.9%.
These figures exclude inflation, currency movement, and any capital expenditure on refurbishment. A negative correlation between THB and the investor's home currency can shift real returns by several percentage points in either direction.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Freehold condo under USD 200k | Premium condo USD 300k+ | Leasehold villa - Phuket | Leasehold villa - Koh Samui |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time on market | 4-7 months | 8-14 months | 10-18 months | 14-24 months |
| Discount off listing price | 7-12% | 10-15% | 12-18% | 15-25% |
| Typical agent commission | 3-5% | 3-5% | 3-5% | 3-5% |
| Seller-side taxes and fees | 3-6.3% | 3-6.3% | 3-6.3% | 3-6.3% |
| Buyer pool depth | Broad (foreign quota) | Moderate | Narrower | Narrow |
| Currency risk | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Risks and mistakes
- Overpricing the listing is the most common error we see. Sellers anchor to current new-build prices while ignoring that their unit is three to five years old and may need refurbishment. Based on our observations, realistic pricing from the outset shortens exposure by 3-5 months on average
- Underestimating transaction costs when modelling returns leads to repeated disappointment. Combined entry and exit costs consume 8-12% of property value and must be factored into any return calculation from day one
- Thai company ownership structures are attracting increasing scrutiny from both the Revenue Department and Land Offices. Nominee shareholding arrangements raise legal risk that is transferred to the buyer at resale, narrowing the buyer pool and adding a discount premium of 2-5 percentage points
- No exit strategy at the time of purchase: our analysts treat secondary-market liquidity as the first parameter to assess before any acquisition. Many buyers skip this step entirely and discover the issue only when they need to sell
- Seasonal demand patterns: on Phuket, the optimal window to list is September to October, ahead of the high season running from November through April, when buyers visit for property inspections and have time to complete transactions. Listing in May typically means a quiet period until autumn
- Currency timing: sustained THB appreciation or depreciation relative to an investor's home currency can move net returns by more than the property transaction itself over a three-year horizon. This is not a Thailand-specific risk, but it is frequently underweighted in investor projections
FAQ
What is the typical listing-to-sale discount on Phuket in 2026?
Based on our Q1 2026 data, the typical discount for foreign-quota freehold condos under USD 200k is 7-12%. For leasehold villas it is 12-18%. On Koh Samui, discounts run 3-7 percentage points higher than comparable Phuket segments.
How long does it take to sell a secondary-market condo on Phuket?
Exposure time depends on segment and pricing accuracy. A freehold condo under USD 200k in Bang Tao, Kamala, or Karon sells in 4-7 months at a realistic asking price. Premium villas typically require 10-18 months.
What are the seller-side transaction costs in Thailand?
Total seller-side costs run approximately 6-8% of the transaction price. They comprise: Specific Business Tax (3.3%) or stamp duty (0.5%), withholding income tax (1-3% estimated), seller's share of the transfer fee (around 1%), and agent commission (3-5%).
Is it worth selling a Phuket property after three years?
In most cases, no. Our holding-period analysis shows that at a three-year horizon, rental income does not offset the combined discount and transaction costs. The annualised real return hovers near zero or is marginally negative for a typical freehold condo.
When is the best time to list a property for sale on Phuket?
September to October is the optimal window. Buyers arrive for the high season (November to April) with time to inspect and complete. Listing in May typically results in low activity until autumn.
Can an off-plan contract be assigned before completion?
Yes, subject to developer approval. The assignment fee is usually 1-3% of the contract value. Some developers prohibit assignment during the first twelve months after signing.
How does currency movement affect returns on a Thai property investment?
Over a three-year holding period, currency movement can shift net returns by 5-8% in either direction, independent of the property transaction. This risk is real in both directions and should be modelled explicitly before acquisition.
Are villas held through a Thai company structure harder to sell?
Yes. The buyer pool is narrower because the purchaser inherits the legal risk of the ownership structure. Our analysts observe an additional discount of 2-5 percentage points compared with a clean leasehold title on comparable properties.
How does Phuket's secondary-market liquidity compare with Koh Samui?
Phuket records transaction volumes several times higher than Koh Samui. On Koh Samui, exposure times are typically 4-8 months longer and discounts run 3-7 percentage points higher. Within Koh Samui, Bophut and Maenam offer the best relative liquidity.
What tax obligations apply to a foreign resident selling property in Thailand?
A foreign seller is subject to Thai-side withholding tax and either Specific Business Tax or stamp duty at the point of transfer. Tax residents of other countries may also have a reporting obligation in their home jurisdiction. Whether and how Thai taxes are creditable depends on the applicable double-taxation agreement. We recommend consulting a tax adviser familiar with both the Thai and home-country systems before completing a transaction.
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