In Q1 2026, Phuket International Airport (HKT) processed more than 4.7 million passengers, according to Airports of Thailand (AOT) reporting - a year-on-year increase of approximately 11%. Our analysts track these figures monthly, because inbound passenger volume at HKT is one of the most reliable leading indicators for the island's short-term rental market.
For context: HKT handled 4.2 million passengers in Q1 2025, and a record 4.9 million in Q1 2019. The current trajectory therefore sits at roughly 96% of pre-pandemic volume. At Koh Samui (airport code USM), our estimates place Q1 2026 passenger throughput at around 420,000, representing 8% year-on-year growth.
Quick answer
- 4.7 million passengers passed through HKT in Q1 2026 (AOT data; +11% year-on-year)
- International traffic accounted for approximately 68% of total arrivals at Phuket during that period
- Russia, China, and India together represented around 42% of all international passengers in Q1 2026
- Short-term rental occupancy in Bang Tao and Kamala reached 78% during the high season (December 2025 to March 2026), based on our tracking data
- Bophut and Chaweng on Koh Samui recorded approximately 71% occupancy over the same window
- Arrivals from European markets grew by an estimated 14% year-on-year, per market-level estimates
Options and scenarios
Baseline scenario: momentum continues
If Q1 2026 arrival dynamics hold through the year, we project annual HKT passenger volume at 17 to 18 million - matching or slightly exceeding the 2019 record of 17.8 million. Under this scenario, average rental occupancy in Phuket's premium districts (Bang Tao, Layan, Surin) would stabilise at 72 to 78% on an annualised basis, with average daily rates (ADR) rising 5 to 8% year-on-year.
Optimistic scenario: Chinese demand surge and new routes
The addition of direct services from second-tier Chinese cities (Chengdu, Hangzhou, Shenzhen) could lift annual volume to 19 to 20 million. Based on our estimates, that would translate into ADR growth of 10 to 14% across the villa and condominium segment in western Phuket.
Pessimistic scenario: global demand slowdown
A material slowdown in key source markets, or a significant weakening of the Russian rouble, could constrain annual throughput to 15 to 16 million. In that scenario, occupancy would likely pull back to 60 to 65%, and rental rates in high-supply sub-markets such as Kamala and Bang Tao could correct by 5 to 10%.
How arrivals translate into rental occupancy
The relationship is direct but lagged. In our quarterly data sets, a rise in HKT passenger volume of 10 percentage points above the five-year average correlates with a 6 to 9% increase in ADR for villas and apartments over the following quarter - with a lag of roughly 2 to 6 weeks.
A strong Q1 2026 at HKT should therefore sustain upward pricing pressure on the rental market at least through May 2026. We monitor this in near-real-time using booking-platform data and direct reports from property managers operating in Bang Tao, Layan, Surin, and Kamala.
At Koh Samui, the same relationship holds but with a smaller amplitude. USM handles only domestic and regional services (Bangkok Airways holds a near-monopoly on routes), which limits sharp demand spikes. Bophut and Maenam typically react to arrival shifts with a 4 to 8 week delay.
Nationality breakdown: who is flying to Phuket in 2026
Immigration data from Q1 2026 shows a meaningful shift in the visitor nationality mix. China has recovered to roughly 18% of international arrivals (up from 14% in Q1 2025), largely on the back of Thailand's extended visa-free access of 60 days. Russia holds a stable 15% share, while India is the fastest-growing segment at approximately 9% in Q1 2026.
For rental market operators, the implications are concrete. Chinese visitors skew toward hotels and serviced apartments in Patong and Karon. Russian-speaking guests concentrate in Rawai, Nai Harn, and Kamala, typically booking villas for 2 to 4 weeks. Indian travellers increasingly reserve apartments in Bang Tao for stays of 7 to 14 days. Each group generates a distinct revenue profile for property owners.
New supply pipeline and rate pressure
Arrival data alone does not determine rental profitability - it must be read alongside supply additions. In 2026, approximately 3,200 new condominium units are scheduled for handover across Phuket (based on EIA registration data), with around 40% concentrated in the Bang Tao and Layan corridor. That is the highest single-year handover volume since 2019.
On Koh Samui, the pipeline is far more modest. We estimate 380 to 420 new units island-wide for 2026, primarily in Bophut and Chaweng. A smaller supply increment reduces the risk of rate compression driven by oversupply.
For investors, the critical calculation is the intersection of these two variables. Rising arrivals combined with a large handover pipeline creates a scenario in which occupancy growth does not automatically translate into rate growth - particularly in Bang Tao, where competition among newly delivered projects is intensifying.
THB exchange rate and real yield
As of early 2026, the THB trades at approximately 0.115 to 0.117 against the Polish zloty (PLN). A 5% depreciation of the baht against any hard currency reduces the real rental yield proportionally when returns are measured in that currency. In our data sets, the THB/PLN rate moved within a range of 0.108 to 0.125 between 2023 and 2025, generating a spread in effective yield of 1.5 to 2 percentage points depending on entry timing.
We also monitor the Bank of Thailand's policy rate, which stood at 2.00% in Q1 2026 following a cut from 2.25% in Q4 2025. Lower rates support domestic property demand but may also soften the baht - a consideration for any investor whose acquisition costs are denominated in a foreign currency.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Pessimistic scenario | Baseline scenario | Optimistic scenario |
|---|---|---|---|
| HKT annual passengers | 15-16 million | 17-18 million | 19-20 million |
| Phuket rental occupancy (annual) | 60-65% | 72-78% | 80-85% |
| ADR change year-on-year (villas, Bang Tao) | -5% to -10% | +5% to +8% | +10% to +14% |
| Koh Samui occupancy (annual) | 55-60% | 65-71% | 73-78% |
| China share of Phuket arrivals | 12-14% | 18-20% | 24-28% |
| Bank of Thailand policy rate | 1.75-2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00-2.25% |
Risks and mistakes
- Extrapolating peak-season data to the full year. Q1 is Phuket's high season. Occupancy in the May-to-October window routinely falls 30 to 40 percentage points below peak readings. Projecting annual yield from a single quarter's figures is the most common analytical error we see among first-time buyers.
- Ignoring new supply. Arrivals growing 11% year-on-year alongside condominium deliveries growing 15 to 20% can still produce lower per-unit occupancy if supply outpaces demand absorption.
- Currency exposure. A 10 to 15% swing in the baht against major currencies over a 12-month period can eliminate a year's rental premium entirely.
- Single-nationality concentration risk. Portfolios or projects positioned exclusively for the Russian or Chinese market carry elevated geopolitical and regulatory exposure - including policy changes on visa access, flight restrictions, or sanctions.
- Understating management costs. Effective property management fees in Phuket run at 20 to 30% of gross rental income. Ignoring this in return projections materially overstates net yield.
- Koh Samui monsoon calendar. The island's monsoon pattern runs counter to Phuket's. The weakest period at Koh Samui is November to December, not May to October. Investors who apply Phuket seasonality assumptions to Samui assets routinely misjudge annual cash flow.
FAQ
How many passengers did Phuket airport handle in Q1 2026?
According to AOT data, HKT processed more than 4.7 million passengers in Q1 2026, representing approximately 11% growth versus Q1 2025.
What is the projected full-year passenger volume at HKT for 2026?
Under our baseline scenario, we project 17 to 18 million annual passengers at HKT in 2026 - on par with or slightly above the 2019 record of 17.8 million.
How do Phuket arrivals affect rental rates?
Based on our data sets, there is a lag of 2 to 6 weeks between an arrival surge and a rental rate response. A 10 percentage-point increase in traffic above the five-year average correlates with a 6 to 9% rise in ADR the following quarter.
Which Phuket districts have the highest rental occupancy?
In the 2025-2026 high season, we recorded the strongest occupancy rates (78 to 82%) in Bang Tao, Layan, and Surin. Rawai and Nai Harn reached 70 to 75%, while Karon posted approximately 68%.
What is rental occupancy on Koh Samui in 2026?
Average occupancy in Bophut and Chaweng reached approximately 71% during the high season (December 2025 to March 2026). Maenam and Lamai ranged between 62 and 67%.
How many new condominiums are being delivered in Phuket in 2026?
Around 3,200 units are scheduled for handover in 2026 based on EIA registration data, with roughly 40% concentrated in the Bang Tao and Layan corridor - the highest annual volume since 2019.
What is Thailand's benchmark interest rate in 2026?
The Bank of Thailand policy rate stands at 2.00% as of Q1 2026, following a reduction from 2.25% in Q4 2025.
How does Koh Samui airport differ from Phuket for rental market analysis?
USM serves only domestic and select regional routes, giving a single carrier near-total route control. This structural constraint limits rapid demand surges and makes Samui's rental market somewhat less sensitive to international flight volume fluctuations than Phuket's.
What nationality mix is driving Phuket arrivals in 2026?
In Q1 2026, Russia, China, and India collectively accounted for roughly 42% of international arrivals at HKT. China's share rebounded to approximately 18% following Thailand's 60-day visa-free extension.
Is new supply a concern for rental yields in Bang Tao?
Yes. With around 40% of Phuket's 2026 condominium pipeline concentrated in Bang Tao and Layan, our analysts flag that occupancy growth in these sub-markets may not translate directly into rate growth due to intensifying inter-project competition.
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