In Q1 2026, Phuket International Airport (HKT) handled more than 4.2 million international passengers, representing an 11% year-on-year increase according to Airports of Thailand (AoT) data. Our analysts track these figures quarterly because inbound passenger volume at HKT is one of the most reliable leading indicators for the island's short-term rental market. The mechanism is straightforward: a sustained rise in arrivals feeds through to higher occupancy rates in tourist-facing districts with a lag of roughly 4 to 8 weeks.
Koh Samui presents a different profile. Samui Airport (USM), operated by a single concessionaire, recorded approximately 620,000 passengers in the same period (per market estimates), reflecting a growth rate of around 8% year-on-year. The smaller absolute volume makes occupancy more sensitive to seasonal swings, but it also supports higher average daily rates (ADR) in the premium segment, particularly for pool villas in Bophut and Maenam.
In our quarterly datasets, we track three core rental performance metrics: occupancy rate, average daily rate (ADR), and revenue per available unit (RevPAR). What follows is a full analysis drawing on data from recent quarters, with scenario-based projections for the remainder of 2026.
Quick answer
- 4.2 million international passengers passed through HKT in Q1 2026, up 11% year-on-year (AoT data)
- Peak-season occupancy (December 2025 to March 2026) in Bang Tao, Surin and Kamala reached 78-82%, based on our estimates
- ADR for condominiums in Bang Tao in Q1 2026 stood at 3,800-5,200 THB per night (approximately USD 105-145 at mid-2026 exchange rates)
- In Bophut and Maenam on Koh Samui, peak-season occupancy reached 72-76%, with ADR running roughly 15% above comparable Phuket inventory
- Our calculations show a 0.87 correlation between arrivals growth at HKT and RevPAR growth across Bang Tao and Surin for the 2023-2025 period - a strong linear relationship
- The 2026 supply pipeline in Bang Tao alone exceeds 1,200 new units (derived from building-permit registries), which could reduce occupancy by 2-4 percentage points if demand growth does not keep pace
Options and scenarios
Baseline scenario: arrivals growth of 8-12% year-on-year
If inbound traffic at HKT continues to expand at 8-12% through the remaining three quarters of 2026, we expect occupancy in the core Phuket districts - Bang Tao, Layan, Kamala, and Surin - to hold above 70% on an annualised basis. ADR growth is likely to be slower than occupancy growth, tracking at 3-5% year-on-year, because incoming supply from newly completed projects will exert downward pricing pressure. For a condominium owner in Bang Tao, this translates to an estimated net rental yield of 5.5-6.5% annually after management fees and common-area charges.
On Koh Samui, the baseline assumes softer arrivals growth of 6-8% year-on-year, offset by a more constrained supply pipeline in Bophut and Maenam. Net yields for pool villas in those districts could reach 6-7.5% under this scenario.
Optimistic scenario: Chinese tourist arrivals recover beyond 2019 levels
In 2019, Chinese nationals accounted for 28% of all arrivals at Phuket, according to Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) data. By 2025 that share had fallen to approximately 18%. If it recovers to 22% or above during 2026, short-term rental demand in districts such as Karon, Kata, and Patong would increase materially. Under this scenario, annual occupancy across Phuket could exceed 75%, with ADR rising 8-10% year-on-year.
Downside scenario: global slowdown and reduced arrivals
A contraction in inbound traffic of 5-10% - driven, for example, by a European recession or weakening Russian outbound travel - would push occupancy in high-supply districts like Bang Tao below 60% on an annualised basis. Combined with the pressure from more than 1,200 new units entering the market, ADR could fall 5-8%. Net yields would compress to the 3.5-4.5% range.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Phuket - Bang Tao / Surin | Phuket - Karon / Rawai | Koh Samui - Bophut / Maenam | Koh Samui - Chaweng / Lamai |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airport passengers Q1 2026 | 4.2 million (HKT) | 4.2 million (HKT) | approx. 620,000 (USM) | approx. 620,000 (USM) |
| Peak-season occupancy | 78-82% | 70-75% | 72-76% | 68-73% |
| Annualised occupancy (2026 estimate) | 70-74% | 62-68% | 64-70% | 58-65% |
| ADR (THB/night, condo) | 3,800-5,200 | 2,800-3,800 | 4,200-6,000 | 3,200-4,500 |
| 2026 supply pipeline (new units) | 1,200+ | approx. 600 | approx. 250 | approx. 350 |
| Net yield - baseline scenario | 5.5-6.5% | 5.0-6.0% | 6.0-7.5% | 5.0-6.5% |
| Supply-side risk | High | Moderate | Low | Moderate |
| Arrivals-to-RevPAR correlation | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.79 | 0.75 |
Risks and mistakes
Extrapolating peak-season figures to the full year. A common analytical error is to calculate yield projections using December-to-March occupancy rates as a proxy for annual performance. In the low season (May to October), occupancy in Phuket drops to 40-55%, and on Koh Samui to 35-50%. Our yield estimates are always based on annualised RevPAR, not peak-season snapshots.
Ignoring the supply pipeline. Bang Tao alone has more than 1,200 units either under construction or scheduled for delivery in 2026. If arrivals growth does not absorb the new supply proportionally, occupancy will fall. We cross-reference building-permit registries each quarter and factor this into all forecasts.
Underestimating currency exposure. For internationally based investors, the Thai baht's movement against home currencies is a material risk. We note that THB has shown multi-percent swings against major currencies on a rolling 12-month basis. A 9% adverse currency move can consume the entire annual net yield at the 5-6% level. We recommend monitoring exchange rates at least quarterly and stress-testing returns under adverse FX assumptions.
Overlooking property management costs. Rental management companies in Phuket typically charge 20-30% of gross revenue. Rates on Koh Samui are similar, though the scope of services occasionally differs. All net yield figures cited in this article already reflect these deductions.
Regulatory risk around short-term letting. Thai law regarding short-term rentals (sub-30-day stays) for foreign property owners remains ambiguous. The Hotel Act B.E. 2547 formally requires a hotel licence for any property offering daily-rate accommodation. Enforcement has been selective in practice, but a regulatory tightening would directly affect rental income from unlicensed units. Investors should obtain independent legal advice on this point before committing.
FAQ
How do tourist arrival numbers affect rental prices in Phuket?
The relationship is strong and measurable. Based on our calculations, the correlation between HKT arrivals growth and RevPAR growth across Bang Tao and Surin was 0.87 over the 2023-2025 period. As a rule of thumb, a 10% increase in arrivals typically produces a 6-8% increase in RevPAR, with a lag of 4-8 weeks.
What is the average apartment occupancy rate in Phuket in 2026?
During the high season (December through March), occupancy in Bang Tao, Surin, and Kamala reaches 78-82%. On an annualised basis, we project 70-74% under the baseline scenario, which assumes 8-12% year-on-year arrivals growth at HKT.
Does Koh Samui offer better rental yields than Phuket?
Koh Samui's premium villa segment in Bophut and Maenam generates higher ADR and faces a smaller supply pipeline. Our baseline net yield estimate is 6-7.5% for Samui pool villas, compared with 5.5-6.5% for Bang Tao condominiums. However, Samui's lower absolute passenger volume (approximately 620,000 per quarter versus 4.2 million at HKT) creates greater occupancy volatility.
How many new apartments are entering the Phuket market in 2026?
Building-permit registry data indicates more than 1,200 units scheduled for delivery in Bang Tao alone. Across all of Phuket, we estimate the 2026 pipeline at approximately 3,500-4,000 units. This is a meaningful supply-side pressure that we track on a quarterly basis.
Which Phuket districts consistently record the highest occupancy?
Bang Tao, Surin, and Kamala lead on occupancy, reaching 78-82% in peak season and an estimated 70-74% on an annualised basis under the baseline scenario. Rawai and Nai Harn post lower occupancy (60-68% annually) but also carry lower entry prices, which can support comparable yield percentages.
When is the best rental season in Phuket and Koh Samui?
Phuket's high season runs from November to March, with peak demand in December and January. Koh Samui's high season is offset by roughly 2-3 weeks, running from mid-December to mid-April. Low season (May to October) brings occupancy down to 40-55% on Phuket and 35-50% on Koh Samui.
Are Thai tourism statistics reliable for investment analysis?
AoT passenger data is publicly released and independently verifiable - it is the primary source we use for leading-indicator analysis. TAT nationality-level data is useful for demand composition but is typically published with a 4-6 week lag. We weight AoT figures more heavily in our quarterly models for that reason.
How does the Chaweng and Lamai supply pipeline affect Koh Samui's rental market?
Approximately 350 new units are expected to complete in Chaweng and Lamai during 2026. Given Koh Samui's smaller overall market size, this volume has a proportionally larger impact than an equivalent pipeline would have on Phuket. We anticipate a 2-3 percentage point occupancy decline in those districts under the baseline scenario.
What is the risk of Thai regulations restricting short-term rentals?
The Hotel Act B.E. 2547 formally requires licencing for sub-30-day rentals, but enforcement has been inconsistent. A more systematic enforcement drive would directly reduce rental income for unlicensed units. This is a tail risk that investors should account for when underwriting rental projections, particularly in districts with high concentrations of condominium short-term lets.
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