The absorption rate for houses and villas on Phuket has fallen to 1.3%, meaning that at the current pace of sales, it would take approximately 72 months (six years) to clear the remaining inventory. Our analysts have been tracking this figure since H1 2026, and it represents a meaningful shift in market dynamics - one that places measurable leverage in the hands of buyers rather than sellers.
Total residential supply on Phuket has crossed 19,537 units, with a combined asking value of roughly 235.8 billion THB, up 15.2% year-on-year. At the same time, the median condominium asking price as of October 2026 stood at 3.77 million THB across 1,079 active listings. In our quarterly tracking, we observe a widening gap between the pace of new supply entering the market and the market's capacity to absorb it.
Quick answer
- The absorption rate for houses and villas on Phuket sits at 1.3% as of H1 2026 - the lowest recorded across all major product segments in our data sets
- At the current sales pace, clearing existing villa inventory would take an estimated 72 months
- The condominium segment shows a higher absorption rate of approximately 2.2%, with over 13,000 units in remaining supply
- New supply in H1 2026 totalled 3,161 units, of which 2,851 were condominiums
- The median condominium asking price on Phuket as of October 2026 is 3.77 million THB (roughly 435,000 PLN at the October 2026 exchange rate)
- The sub-3 million THB band accounts for 428 of the 1,079 observed listings, with a median of 2.39 million THB
Options and scenarios
Scenario A: buying a condominium under 5 million THB in Bang Tao or Kamala
The condominium segment under 5 million THB currently represents the largest pool of available units on Phuket. Based on October 2026 listing data, the sub-3 million THB band holds 428 listings at a median of 2.39 million THB, while the 3-5 million THB band adds a further 273 records at a median of 3.96 million THB. An absorption rate of roughly 2.2% is nearly double that of the villa segment, which translates into better exit liquidity should a resale be needed.
For internationally-oriented buyers, this is the more accessible entry point. A condominium priced at 3 million THB falls within a range where time-on-market is measurably shorter, reducing the risk of capital being tied up in a slow-moving listing. In Bang Tao and Kamala specifically, our analysts monitor relatively stable short-term rental demand, supported by consistent tourist arrivals to the northwest coast.
Scenario B: a villa in the 10-20 million THB range in Layan or Surin
The villa segment carries the highest market-side risk on Phuket at present. A 1.3% absorption rate and a 72-month inventory clearance horizon mean that buyers hold genuine negotiating power - but they must also accept that any future resale may take years to complete. Based on our estimates, negotiated discounts in this segment can reach 10-20% off the asking price, particularly for listings with extended market exposure.
Layan and Surin show a concentration of new premium supply in our pipeline tracking. Upcoming completions add further downward pressure on pricing. We recommend that investors approaching this segment treat the acquisition as an income-generating asset - through long-term or seasonal rental - rather than as a short-term capital appreciation play.
Scenario C: deferring a decision and monitoring Q3-Q4 2026 absorption data
At current indicators, the market is not in distress, but it is undergoing visible product-level selection. Not every listing will find a buyer within a practical timeframe. Waiting for the next one or two quarterly data releases allows buyers to assess whether new supply in H2 2026 continues its upward trend or whether developers begin slowing the launch of new phases. Our analysts update district-level absorption figures on a rolling basis.
Comparison table
| Parameter | Condominiums under 5M THB | Villas 10-20M THB | Houses and land plots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Absorption rate | approx. 2.2% | approx. 1.3% | approx. 1.3% |
| Estimated inventory clearance | approx. 30-36 months | approx. 72 months | approx. 72 months |
| Median asking price | 2.39-3.96M THB | 12.99M THB | no aggregate data |
| Observed active listings | 701 (sub-5M THB) | 102 (10-20M THB) | limited sample |
| Buyer negotiating leverage | moderate | high | high |
| Resale liquidity | higher | low | low |
| Key districts | Bang Tao, Kamala, Karon | Layan, Surin, Kamala | Rawai, Nai Harn |
Risks and mistakes
Overlooking the absorption rate when evaluating a purchase. Many buyers focus primarily on price per square metre and projected rental yield, skipping the more fundamental question: how long would it take to exit the investment if circumstances required it. At 1.3% absorption in the villa segment, the honest answer is potentially several years.
Buying for capital appreciation in an oversupplied segment. In H1 2026, 3,161 new units entered the Phuket market while 2,392 were sold. The gap feeds directly into the unsold inventory pool. Expecting rapid price growth in conditions of rising supply - particularly above the 10 million THB threshold - is a position our data does not support.
Not accounting for the delivery pipeline in a specific district. We monitor active construction pipelines in Bang Tao and, on Koh Samui, in Chaweng and Bophut. Buying in a district with a large number of completions scheduled within the next 12-18 months may result in downward pressure on short-term rental rates as supply increases simultaneously.
Treating asking prices as transaction prices. The October 2026 median of 3.77 million THB reflects asking prices, not closed deal values. Based on our estimates, actual transaction prices close at 5-15% below the listed figure, depending on the segment and how long the listing has been active.
Underestimating holding costs in yield calculations. Property management fees, sinking fund contributions, local taxes, and rental marketing costs reduce net yield in ways that are often underweighted in initial projections. We estimate these ongoing costs at 1.5-3% of property value per year. In a low-absorption environment with potential rental vacancies, this drag has a material impact on total return.
FAQ
What does a 1.3% absorption rate mean for the Phuket villa market?
An absorption rate of 1.3% means that only 1.3% of the available villa inventory was sold in the measured period. At that pace, clearing the full current stock would take an estimated 72 months. For a prospective buyer, this is a signal that the market currently favours the demand side - pricing and terms are more negotiable than in a balanced or undersupplied environment.
How many residential units are available on Phuket in 2026?
As of H1 2026, total residential supply on Phuket has exceeded 19,537 units with a combined asking value of approximately 235.8 billion THB. That represents year-on-year growth of 15.2% in unit count.
What is the median condominium asking price on Phuket?
Based on October 2026 listing data, the median asking price for condominiums on Phuket is 3.77 million THB. Within the sub-3 million THB band, the median drops to 2.39 million THB across 428 active listings.
Does the Phuket oversupply situation also apply to Koh Samui?
Phuket is the larger market by volume, but our analysts monitor similar supply-side pressure signals on Koh Samui, particularly in Chaweng and Bophut, where new project pipelines are growing. Based on our estimates, the scale of oversupply on Samui is proportionally smaller, but the directional trend is comparable.
How does a low absorption rate affect buyer negotiating power?
The lower the absorption rate, the greater the leverage a buyer holds. With 72 months of inventory on hand, developers and secondary market sellers are more willing to offer price reductions, upgraded finishes, or flexible payment schedules than they would be in a tighter market.
Which Phuket property segment has the highest liquidity?
Condominiums priced below 5 million THB show the highest absorption (approximately 2.2%) and the shortest time-on-market in our tracking. This segment also carries the broadest buyer base - covering both investors and end-users - which supports resale liquidity relative to villas.
Do asking prices on Phuket reflect actual transaction prices?
Not consistently. The median asking price is a starting point for negotiation. Based on our estimates, closed transaction prices fall 5-15% below listed figures, with the largest discounts in segments where time-on-market is longest.
Is it worth waiting until 2027 to buy on Phuket?
The answer depends on the target segment. In the villa segment, our data indicates that supply pressure is unlikely to ease quickly, so the current buyer-favourable conditions may persist. In the sub-5 million THB condominium band, absorption is higher and well-positioned listings can move faster. We update our district-level data on a quarterly basis and recommend reviewing those figures before committing.
How should buyers think about total holding costs?
Our analysts estimate that management fees, sinking fund contributions, local taxes and rental marketing costs collectively run at 1.5-3% of property value per year. These costs must be modelled against realistic occupancy assumptions, particularly in districts where new supply completions may compress short-term rental rates over the next 12-18 months.
The absorption rate is one of the most reliable risk-assessment tools available in a market with growing supply. In our view, buyers approaching Phuket in 2026 should prioritise three variables: the absorption rate in their target price segment, the delivery pipeline in their chosen district, and the gap between asking prices and likely transaction prices. The condominium segment below 5 million THB offers higher liquidity and shorter time-on-market than villas, though it still requires careful verification of management costs and realistic rental income projections. We continue to monitor quarterly data across Phuket districts and Koh Samui and update our district-level summaries on a rolling basis.
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